UK unemployment rose to 4.9% in the February-to-April quarter, up 0.3 percentage points on the year, with 1.76 million people out of work, the Office for National Statistics reported on 18 June1. Vacancies fell to 707,000, the lowest since early 2021. Real regular pay grew 0.1% against CPIH, the consumer prices measure that includes housing costs, which leaves wages effectively flat. Payrolled employees were down 138,000 on the year.
The headline vacancy figure looks almost unchanged from the 705,000 reported last month, but the comparison is not clean: the reference window shifted, so the honest reading is sideways-to-down, not a floor. The deterioration is sharper among the young, where unemployment already sits at its highest since 2014.
The Bank of England's AI worst case assumed 500,000 extra unemployed from a vacancy base above 730,000; Britain is now beneath that base before the shock it modelled has even been declared. The ONS still publishes no AI-attribution layer, so the agency measuring the most AI-exposed major labour market cannot say how much of the damage AI is doing.
