The informal USD/CUP rate reached 540 pesos by early May 2026 per the elToque tracker that traders use as the working reference, up from the 530 baseline of 22 April1. The euro reached 618 CUP. The MLC (Moneda Libremente Convertible, the digital currency Cubans use to clear hard-currency goods in state shops) spiked to 420 on 4 May before settling at 400 on 6 May.
The slide has now run continuously since elToque first crossed the 500-peso line in late February. CADECA's (Casas de Cambio, the state currency exchange) dollar-acceptance reform on 7 April was framed as a measure to close the spread between the state rate of about 502 pesos to the dollar and the informal rate; one month on, the spread has widened by ten pesos rather than compressed. The reform did not change the underlying problem, which is that hard currency does not enter the state circuit at the rate the state quotes for it.
The currency move tracks the fuel position. The MLC spike to 420 on 4 May landed the same day Miguel Díaz-Canel admitted Russian crude was running out (see related event in this dispatch for the admission's terms). Hard-currency holders read presidential admissions as supply signals; the convertible unit responded within hours. The peso slide is then the slower, household-side consequence: salaries paid in pesos buy less every fortnight while imported goods continue to be priced against the informal rate.
The Russian-oil cushion that paused the worst grid stress through April has not paused the currency one. For Cuban households, the practical reading is that the cost of a litre of cooking oil at the agromercado, the price of paracetamol on the parallel market, and the remittance value parents in Spain send for school costs are all moving at the elToque rate, not the state one. The reform Havana hoped would close the gap has not yet bitten on the demand side, and the supply side keeps tightening.
