US commercial crude stocks built 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million in the week to 17 July, the first build this desk has logged after a draw streak that ran from May, per the EIA1. The EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, publishes the weekly petroleum status report that European desks price transatlantic arbitrage against. Distillate stocks rose 1.4 million barrels, narrowing the five-year deficit to 10% from the 11% reported a week earlier. Gasoline added 0.8 million barrels and refinery utilisation eased to 96.1%.
Brent above $100 now sits on a looser US balance rather than a tighter one. The distillate deficit has not eased cleanly: it ran 13%, then 8%, then back to 11%, now 10% across four successive weeks, a saw-tooth rather than a trend. The flat price is carrying a war premium that the barrels at Cushing and on the Gulf Coast do not corroborate.
For a European desk pricing the transatlantic arbitrage, the build matters more than the deficit wobble. A rising US crude number under a $100 Brent widens the gap between a war-driven flat price and a loosening physical base, and keeps the question open of whether the premium is freight and insurance or genuine barrels.
