21SEP

Spain's unions go after the tax base

1 min read

16:45UTC

CCOO's Fernando Rocha and economists at Granada and Valencia proposed on 21 September taxing Spanish companies by the employment they generate, after payroll levies raised €109.913bn in seven months.

← Back to AI closes the hiring door, not the exit Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

Spain's payroll-funded welfare state has no revenue model for an automated firm.

Fernando Rocha, director of the labour school at CCOO (Comisiones Obreras, one of Spain's two largest union confederations), together with economists at the universities of Granada and Valencia, proposed on 21 September 2026 modulating Spanish corporate income tax by the employment a company generates, charging higher rates on firms that distribute little of their revenue as wages ¹. Spanish social security contributions raised €109.913bn between January and July 2026 from 22.345 million affiliates ².

Every euro of that is levied on a payroll. Spain's pension and healthcare financing rests on the number of people in work and what they are paid, which makes a fall in the wage share a fiscal problem long before it becomes an unemployment statistic. A firm that produces the same output with fewer salaries pays less into the system while drawing on it exactly as before.

Nobody has legislated this. It is a proposal from a union research body and two university departments, not a government bill, and Spain's corporate tax base is set in a parliament with no majority for it. CCOO picked an unusual target. Every other European response in this briefing bargains over the worker's terms of exit or re-entry, as Spanish unions did at Concentrix in A Coruna in August . This one argues that the state's own revenue model assumes a workforce, and quietly stops working if that assumption fails.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A union economist and academics from two Spanish universities proposed on 21 September that Spain change how it taxes companies: instead of a flat corporate tax rate, firms that employ more people relative to their size would pay a lower rate than firms that employ fewer. The proposal responds to a specific worry. Spain's social security system is funded mainly by contributions tied to payroll, and between January and July 2026 it collected €109.913 billion from 22.345 million contributing workers. If AI lets companies generate the same profit with fewer employees, that funding base shrinks even as the companies themselves stay profitable. Linking corporate tax to headcount is one way to try to keep the incentive to employ people in place, even as AI makes employing fewer people more attractive on its own.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Spain's social security system, like most European welfare states, was built to collect revenue from labour income specifically, through payroll contributions rather than a broader tax on company profits or automation.

If AI decouples corporate profitability from headcount at scale, that funding model faces a structural mismatch: healthy corporate profits without a corresponding rise in the payroll base the welfare system depends on, which is the gap CCOO's Fernando Rocha and his co-authors are proposing to close by taxing companies on employment rather than profit alone.

Sources:EFE (via Infobae)·EFE (via Infobae)

Mentions:Fernando Rocha →Comisiones Obreras →Concentrix →A Coruna →Valencia →Spain →

First Reported In

Update #20 · AI closes the hiring door, not the exit

EFE (via Infobae)· 21 Sept 2026

Read original →

Different Perspectives

Salesforce, Synopsys and TD Bank Group

Salesforce, Synopsys and TD Bank Group each filed quarterly disclosures in late August booking restructuring charges, or none at all, without naming AI as a cause. Their silence matters because Challenger's tracker shows AI as a stated reason fell to fourth place in August even as the year-to-date AI-cut total still leads at 116,175.

Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia

Singapore launched its Skills and Workforce Development Agency on 16 September, giving citizens six months of free premium AI tools, while South Korea ring-fenced its AI tax windfall in a new Future Response Fund. Taiwan kept funding its AI build past NT$190bn and Indonesia rewired vocational training around AI literacy, betting state-built skills beat a market-led adjustment.

ver.di, CGT Fonction Publique and CCOO

Germany's ver.di banked a 3.3% pay rise on 1 September and opened talks on a Tarifvertrag Transformation covering dismissal bans and reskilling, while France's CGT rejected Paris's AI negotiating timetable the same week. Spain's CCOO went further on 21 September, proposing to tax companies by the jobs they generate rather than wait for the next bargaining round.

BIS General Manager and Federal Reserve governors

The BIS's General Manager said on 10 September that AI displacement remains limited, even as the BIS's own survey found nearly 80% of firms plan to automate roles. Two Federal Reserve governors made the same point in July, arguing the labour-market data does not yet show a mass-firing event.

Bank of Canada, ONS and ECB

The Bank of Canada found the job-finding gap between AI-exposed and unexposed occupations widened from 2.2 to 13.9 percentage points since 2015-19, while separations barely moved. That framing, a hiring freeze rather than a firing wave, is echoed by the ECB's finding that euro-area AI use hit 52% of workers in 2026, concentrated among the university-educated.

Office for National Statistics

Deferred its Transformed Labour Force Survey beyond November 2027 and disclosed a May 2026 telephone-collection failure. The ONS carries no AI-attribution layer at all, so Britain sits outside this month's cohort of measuring states by its own admission.