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Welsh Conservatives
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Welsh Conservatives

Welsh branch of the Conservative Party; projected one Senedd seat under new PR voting system.

Last refreshed: 10 April 2026

Key Question

Will the Welsh Conservatives survive as a Senedd force after 2026 proportional elections?

Latest on Welsh Conservatives

#210 Apr

Wales Hardening Into Two Blocs, Researchers Find

#210 Apr

Six Reform Wales Candidates Gone, Three From One Seat

Common Questions
How many Senedd seats are the Welsh Conservatives projected to win?
YouGov projects the Welsh Conservatives at just 1 seat out of 96 in the 2026 Senedd election, down from their current representation.
Why are Conservative voters in Wales switching to Reform UK?
Cardiff University describes the shift as consolidation within the British/Right bloc, not conversion. Conservative voters are moving to Reform within an existing ideological alignment, not crossing to a new one.
Are the Welsh Conservatives a separate party from the UK Conservatives?
No. The Welsh Conservatives are the Welsh branch of the Conservative and Unionist Party. They share UK-wide leadership but run their own Senedd campaigns.

Background

The Welsh Conservatives are the Welsh branch of the Conservative and Unionist Party. They are a distinct regional party with their own leader and manifesto while remaining affiliated to the national party. Before the 2026 Senedd elections, they held 16 seats in the expanded 96-member chamber, making them the official opposition in Cardiff Bay.

Wales switched from a first-past-the-post and regional list hybrid to a pure Closed-list proportional representation system for the 2026 Senedd elections. YouGov MRP polling projected the Welsh Conservatives winning just one seat under the new system, a historic collapse attributable to their national toxicity following 14 years of UK Government and the fracturing of their vote between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.

Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre described Welsh politics in April 2026 as 'hardening into two blocs': a Welsh-nationalist left anchored by Plaid Cymru and Labour, and a populist right dominated by Reform UK. The Welsh Conservatives, caught between both blocs, face potential irrelevance in the devolved chamber for the first time since the Senedd's creation in 1999.