Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is Oman's long-term national development strategy, formally titled Oman Vision 2040, approved by Sultan Haitham in 2021 as the successor to the earlier Vision 2020 plan. The strategy aims to diversify Oman's economy away from hydrocarbon revenues — which still account for approximately 60% of government income — through investment in tourism, logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy, and financial services. The plan sets targets for raising the private sector's share of GDP and increasing Omani employment in non-oil sectors.

In the context of the 2026 Iran conflict, Vision 2040 becomes directly relevant because Oman's strategic positioning as a diplomatic intermediary is partly motivated by economic calculation. Oman's logistics ambitions — particularly its Duqm and Salalah free zones and port infrastructure — depend on stable regional trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure of the strait or sustained conflict would devastate Omani port revenues and set back Vision 2040 infrastructure investments. The Salalah strike in late April 2026 damaged port facilities that Vision 2040 identifies as a pillar of economic transformation.

This economic vulnerability is an underappreciated driver of Sultan Haitham's active diplomacy: Oman cannot afford a long war, which gives it genuine incentive to facilitate a settlement rather than simply hosting talks for prestige.