Harvard Belfer Center
Harvard Kennedy School research centre on security, diplomacy, and nuclear risk.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Is Russia’s territorial retreat in Ukraine a genuine reversal or a temporary pause?
Latest on Harvard Belfer Center
- What is the Harvard Belfer Center?
- The Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs is Harvard Kennedy School’s flagship research centre, founded in 1973. It produces policy analysis on nuclear security, geopolitical risk, and international diplomacy, used by governments worldwide.Source: Belfer Center
- What did the Harvard Belfer Center find about Russian territorial losses in Ukraine?
- Belfer’s Russia Matters project found Russia lost a net 33 square miles between 17 February and 17 March 2026, the first sustained Ukrainian net gain since the 2023 counteroffensive, with Russia’s advance rate decelerating fivefold since mid-2025.Source: Russia Matters / ISW
- What is Russia Matters?
- Russia Matters is a project run by the Harvard Belfer Center that tracks and analyses Russian foreign and military policy, including regular territorial assessments of the Ukraine conflict drawing on Institute for the Study of War data.Source: Russia Matters
- How does the Harvard Belfer Center differ from the Institute for the Study of War?
- ISW produces real-time daily battlefield maps; the Belfer Center’s Russia Matters project aggregates and contextualises ISW data for longer-term strategic and policy analysis, translating battlefield trends into assessments for policymakers.Source: Russia Matters / ISW
Background
The Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs is the flagship research centre of Harvard Kennedy School, founded in 1973. Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, it focuses on nuclear security, geopolitical risk, and international diplomacy, producing policy analysis that informs governments and security agencies worldwide.
The Centre’s Russia Matters project tracks the Ukraine conflict and became a key source when its analysis of Institute for the Study of War data revealed Russia had lost a net 33 square miles between 17 February and 17 March 2026: the first sustained Ukrainian net territorial gain since the 2023 counteroffensive. Russia’s advance rate had decelerated fivefold since mid-2025, to 33–50 sq km per week by February 2026 .
The Centre’s territorial tracking frames a central strategic question: whether Russia’s mounting losses represent genuine reversal or a temporary pause. With the Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive reclaiming 460 sq km since late January, Belfer data has become a benchmark for policymakers weighing Ceasefire timing and Western support thresholds.
