Emilie Vestergaard
Labour economist; co-authored NBER paper showing AI shifts tasks, not employment.
Last refreshed: 28 March 2026
Her data shows AI changes work, not destroys it: why do the headlines say otherwise?
Timeline for Emilie Vestergaard
Mentioned in: Goldman counts 25,000 jobs lost monthly
AI: Jobs, Power & MoneyMentioned in: AEI: AI is an equaliser, not a destroyer
AI: Jobs, Power & MoneyMentioned in: One in three US workers now uses LLMs
AI: Jobs, Power & MoneyCo-authored NBER paper finding LLM adoption shifted tasks not headcounts
AI: Jobs, Power & Money: NBER: LLMs shift tasks, not headcountsMentioned in: AI raises the premium on experience
AI: Jobs, Power & Money- Who is Emilie Vestergaard?
- A labour economist who co-authored the NBER working paper with Anders Humlum finding that LLM adoption shifts tasks rather than destroying jobs.Source: NBER
- Humlum and Vestergaard AI paper findings?
- Their NBER paper found LLM adoption is linked to occupational switching and task restructuring but without net changes in hours or earnings, using large-scale administrative data.Source: NBER
- Does AI replace workers or change their tasks?
- The Humlum-Vestergaard NBER paper found AI changes tasks, not employment levels. This aligns with Oxford Economics and Yale Budget Lab findings.Source: NBER / Oxford Economics / Yale
Background
Vestergaard is a labour economist whose research with co-author Anders Humlum (University of Chicago) used large-scale administrative data to track workers exposed to LLM tools, measuring actual employment outcomes rather than survey-based sentiment or headline layoff counts.
Emilie Vestergaard co-authored the NBER working paper that reframed the 2026 AI/jobs debate, finding that LLM adoption is linked to occupational switching and task restructuring but without net changes in hours or earnings. The paper provided the empirical anchor for a debate otherwise dominated by corporate layoff announcements.
The paper established the empirical consensus alongside Oxford Economics (fewer than 5% of firms report AI-driven reductions) and Yale Budget Lab ("AI washing" in corporate restructuring): AI is restructuring tasks faster than it is eliminating jobs, but the gap between rhetoric and measured displacement is wide.