LLM adoption among US workers rose from 30.1% in December 2024 to 38.3% by December 2025 — an 8.2 percentage-point increase in twelve months, according to Hartley et al.1. For comparison, US smartphone penetration took roughly four years to traverse the equivalent band in the early 2010s.
The adoption figure alone does not settle the displacement debate. Oxford Economics found no evidence of AI replacing workers at scale. The NBER's Humlum and Vestergaard found task restructuring "without net changes in hours or earnings"3. The "AI washing" research suggests many companies are citing AI for cuts driven by conventional cost pressure.
Block's experience tells a different story — its CFO cited a measurable productivity gain, then the company cut 40% of its workforce. Both accounts — augmentation in some firms, genuine replacement in others — can coexist. That is precisely what the aggregate data obscures.
The skills gap makes the stakes plain. The workers being hired are not the workers being displaced. If the Hartley et al. adoption curve continues, more than half of US workers will use LLMs by late 2027. Whether that correlates with accelerating displacement or continued augmentation depends less on the technology's capability than on corporate incentive structures — and equity markets are currently rewarding headcount reduction over workforce expansion.
