Eluned Morgan
Welsh First Minister facing potential loss of her own seat in 2026 Senedd election.
Last refreshed: 10 April 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Could Eluned Morgan become the first First Minister in devolved history to lose her own seat?
Latest on Eluned Morgan
- Could Eluned Morgan lose her own seat in the 2026 Senedd election?
- Yes, per an ITV Wales poll (fieldwork 9-18 March 2026), Morgan is projected to lose her Ceredigion Penfro seat under the new closed-list PR system.Source: ITV Wales / Electoral Calculus
- How many Senedd seats is Welsh Labour projected to win in 2026?
- Welsh Labour is projected to fall from 29 seats to around 12 seats under the new 96-seat closed-list PR system.Source: ITV Wales MRP poll, March 2026
- How does the new Senedd voting system work in 2026?
- Wales switched to a closed-list proportional system with 16 constituencies each electing 6 Members of the Senedd, giving 96 seats total. Voters choose a party, not an individual candidate.Source: Senedd Research Service
- Who is Eluned Morgan and how did she become Welsh First Minister?
- Morgan became First Minister in August 2024, succeeding Vaughan Gething. She has been an MS since 1999 and previously served as a Labour MEP for Wales.Source: Welsh Government
Background
Eluned Morgan became First Minister of Wales in August 2024, succeeding Vaughan Gething and becoming only the second person to lead Welsh Labour in government. An ITV Wales poll (fieldwork 9-18 March 2026) projects she could lose her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro under the new closed-list PR system. Welsh Labour is projected to fall from 29 to 12 Senedd seats, a collapse that would end its 27-year dominance of Welsh politics. No First Minister in any devolved Parliament has ever lost their own seat — making Morgan's position a constitutional first if projections hold.
Morgan has been a Member of the Senedd since 1999 and previously served as a Labour MEP for Wales (1994-1999). She held ministerial roles in the Welsh Government covering health, international relations, and mental health before becoming First Minister. The 2026 Senedd election is fought on a new 96-seat closed-list PR system (replacing the Additional Member System), a reform her government championed but which now threatens her own political survival.
Morgan's position carries significance beyond Wales: a Labour wipeout at the Senedd would remove one of the party's last devolved power bases, undermining Keir Starmer's claim to broad UK-wide support ahead of the next Westminster general election. It would also mark the first time in the devolution era that Labour has lost control of the Welsh Government, resetting the party's relationship with its traditional Welsh heartlands.