Byron Donalds
US Representative and Republican candidate for Florida governor.
Republican Byron Donalds is building his Florida governor campaign on a five-point edge over Democrat David Jolly in a University of North Florida poll fielded 8-17 July 2026, a lead analysts cited when nudging the race rating on 23 July.
Last refreshed: 26 July 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Can a 5-point poll lead make Byron Donalds the clear front-runner for Florida governor?
Timeline for Byron Donalds
Led David Jolly 46% to 41% in a new Florida poll
US Midterms 2026: Sabato moves three races for governorBackground
Donalds has represented Florida's 19th congressional district, covering Naples and southwest Florida, since January 2021. Trump endorsed him for Florida governor when he entered the 2026 race in February 2025.
Donalds' campaign points to a University of North Florida survey, fielded 8-17 July 2026, putting him ahead of Jolly 46% to 41%, as evidence that the early Trump endorsement is converting into a real polling advantage. Sabato's Crystal Ball analyst J. Miles Coleman cited that same lead on 23 July when adjusting his own rating of the contest, though he stopped short of calling it a toss-up .
For Donalds, running for an open seat rather than against an incumbent means the current edge is provisional: such contests typically narrow as election day nears, so his team is treating the poll as a foundation to build turnout on rather than a race already settled .