What is the Brookings Institution?: The Brookings Institution is the oldest think tank in the United States, founded in 1916 and based in Washington, D.C. It produces independent policy research on economics, governance, and foreign affairs, and is regarded as centrist relative to ideologically committed rivals such as AEI or Heritage.Source: Brookings Institution
What did Brookings say about AI and taxes?: A 2026 Brookings working paper by Anton Korinek and Benjamin Lockwood found that AI-driven labour displacement would erode the payroll tax base, which funds roughly 84% of US federal revenue, and argued this could force a structural shift toward consumption-based taxation to sustain the safety net.Source: Korinek & Lockwood, Brookings
Is Brookings liberal or conservative?: Brookings describes itself as non-partisan and centrist. It employs scholars from across the political spectrum and is funded by corporations, foundations, and governments. In practice, its 2026 AI research has been cited by progressive Democrats and Republican deficit hawks to support opposite policy conclusions.Source: Brookings Institution
How does Brookings compare to AEI on AI jobs?: Brookings and AEI reached opposing conclusions on AI labour displacement. The Korinek-Lockwood paper warned of a payroll tax funding crisis if automation displaced enough workers; AEI published a direct rebuttal arguing AI is an equaliser rather than a destroyer, citing job-creation data to counter the displacement thesis.Source: AEI / Brookings
What is the Brookings payroll tax paper about?: The Brookings payroll tax paper, by Anton Korinek and Benjamin Lockwood, models the fiscal consequences of AI replacing human labour at scale. It concludes that if AI displaces enough workers, payroll taxes funding Social Security and Medicare will no longer suffice without a shift to consumption or wealth taxes.Source: Korinek & Lockwood, Brookings

Background

The Brookings Institution, founded in 1916, is the United States' oldest think tank. Based in Washington, D.C., it produces independent research across economics, governance, and Foreign Policy. Unlike ideologically committed rivals, Brookings positions itself as centrist, drawing scholars from both parties and funding from corporations, foundations, and governments.

In the AI displacement debate, Brookings has become a primary citation authority in Congress. A working paper by Anton Korinek and Benjamin Lockwood argued that AI-driven labour replacement would erode the payroll tax base funding roughly 84% of federal revenue, forcing a shift toward consumption-based taxation . AEI has published a direct counter-position .

The tension is fiscal rather than ideological: if automation hollows out the payroll tax base faster than Congress can adapt, the safety net faces a structural funding crisis regardless of which party is in power. Brookings occupies an awkward centre, providing data that Bernie Sanders cites for his robot tax and Republican deficit hawks cite for structural reform .

Source Material

Brookings Institution — Wikipedia Brookings Institution — Official Website Brookings Institution — Reuters coverage

How the World Sees Them

US Congress

Brookings has historically enjoyed bipartisan credibility on fiscal policy, cited in committee hearings across both chambers. Its 2026 payroll-tax erosion paper has entered the Senate HELP Committee record alongside rival research from AEI and RAND.

European Union

EU policymakers studying AI labour transition draw on Brookings analysis alongside native OECD and Eurofound research to model displacement at scale. The consumption-tax pivot argument has influenced internal debates on whether digital services taxes could replace shrinking payroll contributions.

Progressive Democrats

Sanders and his allies treat the Korinek-Lockwood paper as validation for a robot tax, citing the payroll-base erosion finding as evidence automation must be taxed directly. Brookings centrist framing does not prevent its data becoming progressive ammunition.

Republican Deficit Hawks

Republican senators warning of entitlement insolvency cite Brookings fiscal projections as grounds for structural reform rather than new taxation. The same research supports diametrically opposed conclusions, with Brookings data used to justify both spending cuts and consumption-tax overhauls.