Benjamin Lockwood
Economist and co-author of a Brookings paper on AI displacement and tax revenue.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026
If AI hollows out labour income, can the US tax base survive the transition?
Latest on Benjamin Lockwood
- Who is Benjamin Lockwood?
- Benjamin Lockwood is an economist who co-authored a Brookings Institution working paper with Anton Korinek finding that roughly three-quarters of US federal tax revenue is derived from labour taxation, and that sufficient AI-driven displacement would force a structural shift toward consumption-based taxation.Source: Brookings Institution
- What did the Korinek Lockwood Brookings paper find?
- The Brookings working paper by Anton Korinek and Benjamin Lockwood found approximately 75% of US federal tax revenue comes from labour taxation. It argued that if AI displaces enough workers, the US would need to shift toward consumption-based taxes to sustain federal revenue.Source: Brookings Institution
- How does AI threaten the US tax base?
- Because the majority of US federal tax revenue derives from taxes on labour, including income and payroll taxes, large-scale AI displacement of workers would shrink the tax base substantially. Lockwood and Korinek's Brookings paper models this structural risk and argues consumption taxes would need to compensate.Source: Brookings Institution
- What is the difference between the Lockwood-Korinek and AEI positions on AI and tax?
- Lockwood and Korinek project structural fiscal disruption if AI displaces labour at scale, arguing the US tax base would require fundamental redesign toward consumption taxes. The American Enterprise Institute counters that current AI tools act as skill equalisers and that displacement forecasts are overstated.Source: Brookings Institution / AEI
Background
Benjamin Lockwood is an economist whose research focuses on taxation, labour markets, and public finance. He co-authored a Brookings Institution working paper with Anton Korinek examining the broader fiscal consequences of AI-driven labour displacement on the US federal revenue base .
The Korinek-Lockwood paper found roughly three-quarters of US federal tax revenue derives from labour taxation, including income and payroll levies. It argues that sufficient AI-driven displacement would force a structural shift toward consumption-based taxation, a finding cited alongside evidence of IRS staffing cuts of up to 31% and projections of $159 billion in lost revenue over the coming decade .
The paper sits at the intersection of two live debates: how fast AI will displace workers, and whether existing tax architecture can survive that transition. Bernie Sanders and bipartisan Senate proposals have both drawn on this body of fiscal analysis to frame legislative responses to AI-driven employment change .
