Ali Vaez
ICG Iran Project Director whose analysis shaped understanding of Hormuz as a weapon more potent than a nuclear device.
Last refreshed: 5 April 2026
Is Iran's Hormuz leverage really more potent than a nuclear weapon?
Latest on Ali Vaez
- Who is Ali Vaez and why is he quoted on Iran?
- Ali Vaez is the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based conflict prevention think tank. He was involved in analysis supporting the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and is one of the most cited independent Western analysts on Iranian strategy.Source: ICG, CNN Amanpour
- Why did Ali Vaez say Hormuz is more powerful than a nuclear weapon?
- Vaez argued that Iran's ability to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz — through which 90% of Gulf oil exports flow — requires only one or two drones and achieves immediate global economic impact, unlike a nuclear weapon which would trigger existential retaliation.Source: International Crisis Group, April 2026
- Did analysts expect the Iranian regime to collapse in 2026?
- No mainstream conflict analysts predicted regime collapse. Vaez said on CNN in March 2026 that the Iranian leadership was "nowhere near the brink of collapse," contradicting White House projections at the time.Source: CNN Amanpour, March 2026
Background
Ali Vaez is the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, one of the world's foremost conflict prevention organisations. A specialised Iran analyst, Vaez played an important role in advancing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, providing analysis that informed diplomatic strategy during the P5+1 negotiations. His research spans Iran's domestic political dynamics, nuclear programme, regional strategy, and the intersection of economic pressure and regime behaviour — making him one of the most cited Western analysts on Iranian decision-making during the 2026 conflict.
In April 2026, Vaez offered a striking assessment of Iran's Strait of Hormuz strategy: that in attempting to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US had "handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption." He stated that Tehran's ability to control the strait "is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon," requiring only "one or two drones" to deter commercial traffic. Vaez also assessed that Iran's conventional deterrence would be significantly degraded at the end of the war, making its remaining stock of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium a more attractive shortcut to the nuclear deterrent.
Vaez described the US-Israeli campaign as having transformed from a "war of choice" into a "war of necessity" as the Hormuz blockade drove a worldwide oil crisis. He also appeared on CNN's Amanpour programme in March 2026 to argue that the Iranian leadership was "nowhere near the brink of collapse," contradicting then-prevailing White House assertions about regime fragility.
