Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
13MAY

Five Iranian cities hit on opening night

1 min read
20:00UTC

Joint US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Roaring Lion / Epic Fury hit Iran's political capital, nuclear facilities, and regional military commands simultaneously on 28 February 2026.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Simultaneous strikes on five Iranian cities — including Qom — indicate a campaign targeting nuclear infrastructure, air defences, and leadership in a single coordinated package rather than a graduated escalation.

The geographic spread of the strike package — Tehran (political command), Isfahan (advanced nuclear and aerospace facilities), Qom (hardened underground enrichment site), Karaj (centrifuge component production), and Kermanshah (western military command) — indicates a campaign designed to achieve three simultaneous objectives: suppress air defences, degrade nuclear infrastructure, and decapitate political and military leadership.

Striking five cities in a single night requires a substantially larger air package than any previous US-Israeli operation against Iranian facilities. The 2007 Israeli strike on Syria's Al-Kibar reactor involved a single target. The April and October 2024 Israeli strikes on Iran were limited to specific radar and air-defence nodes. Roaring Lion / Epic Fury operates at a categorically different scale.

The inclusion of QomIran's most politically sensitive religious city and home to the Fordow enrichment facility buried beneath it — signals that planners accepted the political cost of targeting a site with deep Shia religious significance. Previous Israeli operations avoided it precisely because of that framing risk. Its inclusion here suggests the nuclear objective overrode that constraint.

Kermanshah's targeting points to interdiction of Iranian ground force movements toward Iraq and degradation of western military district command capacity, limiting the ability to direct militia assets across the Iraqi border in the immediate aftermath.

Deep Analysis

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Short term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #2 · Five cities struck on opening night

IAEA (via GlobalSecurity)· 28 Feb 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Five Iranian cities hit on opening night
Opening military action of a major US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, representing a dramatic escalation of the broader conflict.
Led to
148 girls killed at Minab school strike
Roaring Lion strikes hit Minab school
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Assembly of Experts HQ destroyed in Qom
Roaring Lion strikes hit Assembly of Experts HQ
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
IRGC closes Hormuz; 20% of world oil cut
IRGC closed Hormuz in retaliation for strikes
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Israeli strikes reach central Tehran
Israeli strikes expanded from initial military and nuclear targets to central Tehran administrative infrastructure
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Nine killed at Karachi consulate protest
US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered Shia solidarity protests in Karachi that turned lethal when Pakistani security forces opened fire at the US consulate
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Three US troops killed; no details given
US military operations in the Iran conflict resulted in the first three American combat fatalities
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Protests reach Kashmir from Karachi
Iran-Israel-US conflict triggered solidarity protests in Kashmir
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Israel claims air supremacy over Iran
Air supremacy declaration is the culmination of the US-Israeli strike campaign that began with Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Pentagon: war will last 'weeks not days'
US defence official's duration assessment directly references the ongoing strike campaign
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
90 min; Pentagon produced zero evidence
Pentagon congressional briefing convened to justify strikes launched without congressional authorisation
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
War powers vote; it cannot stop the war
War powers votes triggered by strikes launched without congressional authorisation
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
India silent after Modi's Tel Aviv visit
India's silence on strikes is diplomatic positioning in response to the conflict
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Turkey braces for 1m Iranian refugees
Turkey's refugee infrastructure preparation driven by the Iran conflict
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
South Africa silent on Iran strikes
South Africa's silence is a notable diplomatic non-response given its prior ICJ action against Israel
Occurred 1 Mar 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
The B9+Nordic Bucharest joint statement on 13 May reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty within internationally recognised borders and backed NATO eastern flank reinforcement; the summit accepted Zelenskyy's bilateral drone deal proposal as a structural alternative to the stalled US export approval pathway, treating it as a European defence architecture question rather than aid delivery.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi is still negotiating a sixth ZNPP repair ceasefire with no agreement after 50 days of 750 kV line disconnection; the 3 May ERCL drone strike that destroyed environmental monitoring equipment represents a qualitative escalation in infrastructure degradation that the IAEA has documented but cannot compel either party to halt.
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Magyar's incoming foreign minister pledged on 12 May that Hungary will stop abusing EU veto rights; the pledge is a statement of intent rather than a binding legal commitment, and Magyar's MEPs voted against the €90 billion loan as recently as April, while a planned referendum on Ukraine's EU accession preserves a downstream blocking lever.
EU Council and European Commission
EU Council and European Commission
The Magyar cabinet formation on 12 May removes the Hungary veto that had blocked the €9.1 billion first tranche since February; the Commission is now coordinating the three-document disbursement package for an early-June vote. The structural blocker is gone; the disbursement question is now scheduling, not politics.
Donald Trump / White House
Donald Trump / White House
Trump announced a 9-11 May three-day ceasefire with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange attached, then called peace 'getting very close' on 11-13 May while Russia's 800-drone barrage was under way; his public framing adopted Russian diplomatic language without securing any Russian operational concession or verifying the exchange was agreed.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin told reporters on 9 May the war is 'coming to an end' while Peskov confirmed on 13 May that territorial demands are unchanged and Russia requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from all four annexed regions; the verbal accommodation costs Moscow nothing and conditions any summit on a pre-finalised treaty Kyiv cannot accept.