Countries in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA) reported 129 clade I mpox cases across nine countries in June, and 22 clade II cases across six, ECDC recorded in its week 29 threats report1. Clade I is the more severe of the two mpox lineages, the one behind the central African emergency declared in 2024; clade II is the milder lineage responsible for the 2022 global outbreak. June is the first reporting month since ECDC began publishing a dedicated monthly clade I bulletin in which the clade I count held roughly level rather than rising.
The twelve-month totals put the June figure in proportion: 829 clade I cases across 18 countries and 921 clade II cases across 18, with 14% of clade I patients and 8% of clade II patients hospitalised, and two deaths recorded2. Around nine in ten cases in both lineages are in men who have sex with men.
That concentration is what makes the plateau ambiguous rather than reassuring. Clade Ib was confirmed circulating locally in Europe last month among patients with no travel history to Africa, so transmission is domestic and no longer purely imported. In a network with dense sexual mixing, incidence flattens when a wave has saturated the contacts it can reach, and it does so whether or not vaccination or behaviour change contributed. A second month at this level would begin to distinguish the two readings. One month does not.
