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Is Britain Actually Broke?
7OCT

UK government borrowed 5.2% of GDP in Q2

3 min read
12:52UTC

Households lent 2.4% of GDP between April and June while the state borrowed 5.2%, ONS sector accounts published on 30 September show.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Household and company saving is the counterpart of state borrowing of 5.2% of GDP.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its sector accounts, which track who lends and who borrows across the economy, on 30 September⁠1. They show government borrowing at 5.2% of GDP between April and June, up from 4.2% in the first quarter. That borrowing adds to the public debt stock this desk took as its baseline in July. Financial corporations borrowed a further 0.4%. Households lent 2.4% of GDP, non-financial companies 0.6% and overseas lenders 2.8%; as published, the lending and borrowing figures differ by 0.2 points of GDP.

In these accounts one sector's borrowing always equals another's lending. A claim that households are fine therefore partly restates the fact that the state is borrowing.

The household saving ratio, which includes pension saving, was 8.8%, and real disposable income per head rose 1.0% after a 0.8% fall in the first quarter⁠2. The ONS says the rise came mainly from social benefits, a category that includes the state pension, rather than from wages. Benefits count as household income in the accounts, so part of the household cushion is the other side of the state's deficit.

A correction to this desk's own record follows. In July this desk printed the first-quarter saving ratio as 8.9%; on the revised series it was 8.6%, so the cushion was thinner than we printed. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.5%, from 0.4%.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Think of the economy as four piggy banks: households, companies, the government and overseas lenders. Money saved by one is borrowed by another. The sector accounts from the Office for National Statistics show who is lending and who is borrowing. Between April and June the government borrowed the equivalent of 5.2% of everything the country produces in a year (GDP). Households lent 2.4%, and overseas lenders 2.8%. Households look better off because incomes per person rose 1.0%. The ONS says the rise came mostly from benefits, including the state pension, not from higher pay.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The 1.0 point rise in quarterly government borrowing reflects two structural pressures. Welfare spending is indexed and demand-led, and the ONS ties the income lift to social benefits, a category that includes the state pension.

The second pressure is demographic: pension payments rise with the triple lock and a growing retired cohort, which feeds household income and the deficit in the same quarter. Wage income played a smaller part, so the private sector's cushion owes more to transfers than to earnings.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    With overseas lenders supplying 2.8% of GDP, the deficit relies on foreign appetite for gilts as much as on domestic saving.

  • Meaning

    Household resilience in the accounts is partly the state's own transfer payments, so it is not independent evidence that the private sector can absorb tax rises.

First Reported In

Update #4 · £8.1bn over forecast, and the 30-year at 6%

Office for National Statistics· 7 Oct 2026
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Different Perspectives
Conservative Party
Conservative Party
Leader Kemi Badenoch said Labour will run out of money and proposed lifting defence to 3% of GDP, paid for from welfare. Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately put those savings at £23bn, "just the start".
Reform UK
Reform UK
Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick pledged £80bn a year of spending cuts by the end of the next parliament and claimed £30bn a year of interest savings. The Spectator judged that the sums still do not fully add up.
Centre for Policy Studies
Centre for Policy Studies
The right-of-centre think tank argued on 4 October that Britain is not a low-tax country once workplace pensions and student-loan repayments are counted. Its comparison rests on 2019 data.
Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs
The free-market think tank argued on 28 September that alcohol, tobacco and landfill duties raised £5.2bn less than the OBR projected. That comparison is separate from the five-month borrowing overshoot.
Resolution Foundation
Resolution Foundation
The centre-left think tank said on 8 September that about £1 in every £12 of public spending now goes on debt interest. In July it put headroom against the fiscal rules at about £10bn.
Audit Scotland
Audit Scotland
It reported on 17 September that three Scottish budgets planned ScotWind drawdowns and drew nothing each time. It warned that using one-off receipts to balance annual budgets can weaken spending control.