Hengaw's 9th casualty report is overdue by five or more days. The organisation had been publishing on a regular cycle since the war began. Its last confirmed figure, 6,900 killed through Day 29 , is a floor, not a ceiling. Hengaw had previously gone silent for five days in late March . That the war's only independent casualty monitor cannot, or will not, publish should be read as a figure in its own right.
24APR
Hengaw Casualty Monitor Silent for Five Days
1 min read
11:11UTC
The war's only independent casualty monitor has gone quiet. The last confirmed figure of 6,900 killed is a floor.
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway
What the independent casualty monitor is not telling us is itself evidence.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Hengaw is an independent human rights organisation that monitors casualties in Iran. It has been publishing regular reports since the war began, tracking deaths that the Iranian government does not publicly confirm. Its 9th report is now more than five days late. The last figure it published was 6,900 killed through Day 29. Five days of war have passed since then with no update. The silence could mean the organisation is being suppressed, that it is overwhelmed, or that the pace of casualties has exceeded its capacity to verify. Any of those explanations suggests the true toll is higher, not lower.
First Reported In
Update #55 · The Last Door Closes
CNN / Al Jazeera / Axios· 2 Apr 2026
Read original →Causes and effects
This Event
Hengaw Casualty Monitor Silent for Five Days
The silence of the only independent casualty source is itself evidence of the war's human toll.
Different Perspectives
International human rights monitors (NetBlocks, IHR, Hengaw)
NetBlocks recorded 1,704 cumulative hours of near-total internet blackout for roughly 90 million Iranians on Day 74, while IHR documented ongoing executions under emergency provisions. These organisations are the only active monitoring windows into a civilian population cut off from the global internet for 71 consecutive days.
UK / France coalition
The Royal Navy confirmed HMS Dragon's Hormuz deployment on its own website on 11 May, converting a press-reported presence into declared force posture; UK and French defence ministers hosted a coalition meeting the same day. Britain and France are now the only named contributors to a Hormuz escort mission all five allies Trump originally asked had declined.
Saudi Aramco / Gulf producers
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on 11 May that a Hormuz closure could remove 100 million barrels of weekly supply from global markets (roughly 15 million barrels per day for a week), a figure that dwarfs any OPEC+ swing capacity. The warning functions as both a price-floor signal and a public pressure on Washington to protect transit.
Beijing / Chinese Government
China has not publicly acknowledged the four Hong Kong-registered entities designated on 11 May or extended MOFCOM's Blocking Rules cover to HK-domiciled firms. Xi Jinping hosts Trump on 14–15 May having already de-risked state-bank balance sheets via NFRA's quiet loan halt, entering the summit partially compliant before any negotiation.
Tehran / Iranian Government
Foreign Minister Araghchi described Iran's 10-point counter-proposal as 'reasonable and responsible' via spokesman Baqaei on 11 May, and widened the mediator pool by meeting Turkish, Egyptian, and Dutch counterparts in a single day. Tehran is buying procedural runway while Trump's verbal rejection went unmatched by any written US counter.
Trump White House
Trump called the ceasefire 'on massive life support' and dismissed Iran's 10-point counter-proposal as 'a piece of garbage' on 11 May, while departing for Beijing two days later with no signed Iran instrument to show Congress. The verbal maximum and the paper void coexist: the administration is running a legal pressure campaign through Treasury while the president free-lances the rhetoric.