Brent Crude settled at $110.05 on 7 April in a $106.89 to $111.68 intraday range, holding 64% above pre-war levels of around $67 a barrel despite the marginal overnight decline 1, a level that absorbs the structural Hormuz premium markets first repriced after Iran built its permanent customs authority . Volatility through the session was lower than on any of the four previous deadline days, an unusual reading for a market that should, on paper, be repricing tail risk in the final hours before a US ultimatum lapses.
The most coherent explanation is that traders have stopped pricing the deadlines. Five reformulations have produced five extensions, and the structural premium that built up after the initial Hormuz closure (Brent was at roughly $67 pre-war) is now treated as the new floor, not a transient spike. What remains is two-way risk: a genuine breakthrough would push Brent towards $90, a genuine escalation towards $130 or more. Today's range is what markets look like when neither side of that distribution is being underwritten.
