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Iran Conflict 2026
9MAR

Majlis codifies Hormuz toll in law

2 min read
05:12UTC

The blockade that began as a military measure is becoming domestic legislation, with projected revenues reaching $800 million per month.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Iran is converting a wartime blockade into permanent law, making reversal a sovereignty question.

Iran's Majlis began drafting legislation on 31 March to codify the IRGC's Hormuz toll into permanent domestic law. 1 A vote was expected before the end of March but cannot proceed until parliament reconvenes. At projected scale, revenue estimates reach $600 million to $800 million per month from oil tankers and LNG carriers combined.

The legislative step matters because it changes the nature of what the toll is. An operational wartime measure can be reversed by the military that imposed it. A law can only be reversed by the parliament that passed it, with Guardian Council approval, after a political process that no Iranian politician has incentive to initiate. Shadow fleet vessels already account for 80% of Hormuz transits , and the toll is being paid by state-backed Chinese container ships. The infrastructure is built. Legislation is the lock.

The last time a state imposed transit fees on a major international waterway was the Ottoman Empire's Bosphorus tolls, abolished by the 1936 Montreux Convention. Iran's version is being codified in real time during an active war. The NPT withdrawal bill remains frozen in the same parliament : the Majlis has not sat in 31 days, with no reconvening date announced. When it does sit, both bills advance simultaneously.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's parliament is writing a law to permanently charge ships a toll to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The law has not passed yet because parliament has not met in over a month. The difference between a wartime toll and a permanent law is significant. A wartime toll can end when the war ends. A law can only be changed by parliament, which means it could last for decades regardless of how the war ends. The last time a country charged transit fees on a major international waterway was the Ottoman Empire, which charged Bosphorus tolls until a 1936 international agreement abolished them. Iran is trying to do the same thing in 2026.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    If enacted, this would be the first domestic law codifying a sovereign charge on an international strait in modern maritime history, challenging UNCLOS innocent passage rights.

    Long term · 0.85
  • Consequence

    Reversing the toll post-war becomes a sovereignty dispute requiring treaty revision rather than a military question, making it functionally permanent.

    Medium term · 0.8
  • Risk

    When parliament reconvenes, both the toll bill and the NPT withdrawal bill advance simultaneously, presenting the international community with two irreversible legislative facts at once.

    Short term · 0.7
First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

NBC News / Lloyd's List· 31 Mar 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Oil markets / Lloyd's underwriters
Oil markets / Lloyd's underwriters
Futures markets priced CENTCOM's strikes-complete statement as a de-escalation signal and pushed Brent down 1.7 per cent to $94.71, even as the IRGC declared Hormuz closed. Lloyd's war-risk premiums held elevated because institutional de-listing requires a UN Security Council resolution that Russia and China have just shown they will block.
Pakistan (mediator)
Pakistan (mediator)
Interior minister Mohsin Naqvi carried dual civilian and military letters to Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran on 6-7 June with no public response. The IRGC's Hormuz closure on 11 June shows the corps is acting independently of the channel Pakistan is using, making the mediation structurally unable to produce a binding commitment without direct IRGC access.
Russia and China
Russia and China
Russia and China voted against GOV/2026/40 at the IAEA Board, following through on the blocking position coordinated with Grossi in Geneva on 5 June; both states continue to oppose Western institutional pressure on Iran at every multilateral venue.
E3 and IAEA (UK, France, Germany)
E3 and IAEA (UK, France, Germany)
The E3 co-sponsored IAEA resolution GOV/2026/40, adopted 21-3-10 on 10 June, demanding Iran disclose 440.9 kg of unaccounted HEU and admit inspectors to four denied facilities. The 10 abstentions and Russia-China noes leave any Security Council referral without a viable enforcement path.
IRGC / Iran military command
IRGC / Iran military command
The corps declared Hormuz closed to all traffic on 11 June and claimed two vessels struck, overriding the MoU its own civilian negotiators were pursuing through Pakistan. The closure order used the Persian Gulf Strait Authority apparatus to convert a toll mechanism into a military prohibition.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
CENTCOM completed a second day of strikes on Tehran, Sirik and Minab, rejected the IRGC Hormuz closure as inconsistent with observed transit, and said strikes were complete. Hegseth framed the bombing explicitly as the negotiation: the method is coercive deal-making with no stated pause threshold.