The VNU (Vente Nucleaire Universelle) mechanism replaced ARENH from 1 January 2026, administered by CRE. Under ARENH, French industrial consumers had access to EDF nuclear power at a regulated fixed price. Under VNU, pricing is market-linked, which means industrial offtakers are now exposed to the same power price moves as the rest of the market.
Continental power spread models have not yet incorporated the change. Under ARENH, French industrial demand was price-inelastic to power market movements because the regulated tariff insulated consumers from spot volatility. VNU strips that insulation: industrial offtakers now face the same spot exposure as unregulated buyers. If power prices rise during periods of nuclear scarcity (the September Flamanville-3 overhaul removes 1.6 GW), French industrial consumers face the full market price for the first time, which could alter demand behaviour and push some load towards gas self-generation.
VNU took effect five months before the heatwave tested French nuclear export capacity against domestic cooling demand. EDF holds 350-370 TWh full-year nuclear guidance, but the September overhaul and summer cooling loads compress the surplus available for both domestic industry and cross-border exports to Germany. Industrial consumers who previously relied on ARENH's fixed price as a cost floor must now hedge against a market they had not participated in directly.
