Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Iran Conflict 2026
14AUG

Brent at $112 as Houthis join the war

2 min read
09:56UTC

The IEA's largest-ever emergency oil release has not stabilised prices; a Dow executive warned supply chains will take nine months to recover after the strait reopens.

← Back to The ships Iran does not control are leaving HormuzJump to analysis ↓
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Nine months of supply chain damage is locked in regardless of when the war ends.

Brent Crude closed at $112.57 on 28 March, up 4.22% on the day. Pre-war Brent was $67.41; the current price represents a 67% increase in 29 days. The Houthi entry and Iran's firm rejection of negotiations drove the reversal. 1

The IEA's record 400 million barrel emergency release, the largest in the agency's 50-year history, has not stabilised prices. The IEA itself said why: "The most important factor is resumption of regular transit through the strait of Hormuz." 2 European reserves are predominantly industry-held: 74.8 million barrels from industry versus 32.7 million from government, giving European governments less direct control than the headline figure implies.

Dow CEO Jim Fitterling stated the damage is already locked in: even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, petrochemical supply chains will take 250-275 days to unwind. The US-Asia petrochemical pricing gap has surged from under $500 to over $1,200 per metric tonne. 3 US farmers face a 2 million tonne urea shortfall during spring planting, with urea prices up 49% to $720 per tonne. Corn and wheat yields on affected fields could fall 10-20%, with downstream effects on global grain prices by autumn.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices closed at $112.57 per barrel on 28 March, up about 4% on the day. Before the war started, a barrel cost $67.41. The 67% rise in 29 days is one of the fastest sustained oil price increases in modern history. The IEA, a group of oil-consuming countries, released the largest emergency oil reserve in its history: 400 million barrels. It has not reduced prices. The IEA itself said why: reserves cover a temporary supply disruption; they cannot substitute for a closed shipping route. For a British driver, $112 oil means roughly £1.80 per litre at the pump. For farmers, fertiliser is the bigger problem. Urea, the chemical used to grow corn and wheat, has risen 49% in price and the US faces a 2 million tonne shortage this spring planting season. Crop yields could fall 10-20%, and those effects will reach food prices by autumn.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A ceasefire today does not end the economic damage: Dow's 250-275 day supply chain unwind means petrochemical-driven inflation persists into Q1 2027 regardless of conflict resolution.

  • Risk

    The 2 million tonne urea shortfall is not substitutable within a planting season; US crop yields in autumn 2026 are already compromised regardless of war outcome.

Sources:Fortune·IAEA / CBS News·IAEA / CBS News
Mentions:Strait of Hormuz →Iran →Byron Callan →
First Reported In

Update #50 · Houthis join; Iran holds two chokepoints

Fortune· 28 Mar 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
War leaves US farms 2m tonnes short
The urea shortfall and Brent surge are direct economic consequences of the Hormuz disruption and Houthi entry compounding energy market pressure.
Occurred 27 Mar 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent at $112 as Houthis join the war
The economic damage is already locked in regardless of when the war ends; the petrochemical and fertiliser shocks will outlast any ceasefire by months.
Led to
Brent at $112 as Houthis enter the war
Brent's 4.22% surge to $112.57 reflects the compounding economic impact of Houthi entry into the conflict adding demand-side uncertainty.
Occurred 28 Mar 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Zawtar municipality, Lebanon
Zawtar municipality, Lebanon
Mayor Muhammad Ismail called the 12 August demolition of the Sheikh Naim Mahdi School the biggest blow of a month that has also taken a nursery, municipal buildings, and his own home. The school falls inside Lebanon's nominal ceasefire zone.
European Union
European Union
The EU's High Representative joined 31 other states on 13 August condemning Iran's use of the death penalty to silence dissent. The joint statement cites no single casualty figure, leaving the scale of what it condemns to three monitors that disagree with each other.
Hengaw
Hengaw
The Norway-based monitor recorded 67 Iranian executions in July alone, against the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center's full-year total of 916 and Iran Human Rights Monitor's roughly 463. None of the three reconciles its count with the other two.
Lloyd's List Intelligence and Kpler
Lloyd's List Intelligence and Kpler
Lloyd's List counted 78 weekly Hormuz transits to 9 August, down from 95, with non-Iranian-linked ships leaving fastest. Kpler-sourced reports for 11 August traffic diverge between outlets by more than double, leaving underwriters no single figure for the route.
United States Treasury
United States Treasury
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax on 13 August that Washington will announce measures with more detail the following week. He named no instrument, sanctions target, or effective date.
United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates
The UAE foreign ministry named the IRGC as the perpetrator of the 13 August attack on two ADNOC vessels, called it piracy, and invoked UN Security Council Resolution 2817. The statement follows five months in which every UAE shipping claim rested on Abu Dhabi's word alone.