TTF front-month closed at €46.44/MWh on the Monday 4 May session, inside a weekly range of €43.4 to 47.4/MWh per ICE data 1. Month-to-date the contract is down 7.27%; year-on-year it is up 40.53%. The France May-26 power contract traded at €21.80/MWh versus Germany May-26 at €77.55/MWh; the €55.75 spread first flagged on 28 April held through 4 May with no compression.
A tight weekly range is what European desks expect when the supply book is settled. The settled read holds across two prior anchors: the €41.67/MWh six-week low on 17 April and the recovery after Iran's re-closure of Hormuz . The weekly range across 30 April to 4 May sits inside both of those reference points, and that compression is what makes the divergence with the storage-pace data sharp rather than incremental.
France's nuclear-led baseload prints at €21.80/MWh while Germany's gas-and-renewables mix prints at €77.55/MWh, and the €55.75 spread has held without compression for nearly a week. That persistence indicates the spread is structural rather than a one-session dislocation; it tracks the underlying generation mix and the gas-to-power transmission channel rather than near-term wind or temperature noise. The TTF range and the power spread together describe a market reading aggregate supply as resolved and the bilateral generation-mix gap as durable.
