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Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Clean spark spread reaches EUR 74

2 min read
09:24UTC

Germany's clean spark spread reached roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June, reversing a three-week run of losses, as EUA carbon held the EUR 80 handle at EUR 80.17.

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Key takeaway

A high day-ahead lifted Germany's spark spread to EUR 74; carbon near EUR 80 caps the margin.

Germany's clean spark spread widened to roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June, its best reading since the early-June heat series 1. Take the day-ahead high, subtract about EUR 88 of gas input and EUR 32 of carbon at a 50%-efficiency CCGT, and the gross generating margin lands there. Three weeks earlier the same spread sat near EUR -8 to -9, with CCGTs losing money on every dispatched megawatt .

The carbon leg moved too. EUA (EU Allowance) permits slipped to EUR 79.25 on 29 June, briefly losing the EUR 80 handle, then recovered to EUR 80.17 on 30 June 2 . EUA had first broken above EUR 80 on 25 June, and holding that level keeps the carbon cost near EUR 32/MWh.

That EUR 32 carbon charge is what holds the German margin in check. Strip the permits out and the same day-ahead high would clear a spark spread well above EUR 100. The reversal from three weeks of losses tracks the day-ahead rather than any fall in gas: at an unchanged EUR 88 fuel leg, the power price alone turned the spread positive.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The clean spark spread is the profit a gas power plant earns per megawatt-hour it generates, after paying for the gas fuel and for EU carbon pollution permits. When the price of electricity is high and the price of gas and carbon is low, the spread is wide and generators make good money. When the price of electricity is low or gas and carbon are expensive, the spread can go negative, meaning operators lose money on each unit of electricity they produce. On 30 June, three things aligned to produce the widest spread since early June: electricity prices reached EUR 195 per megawatt-hour because wind was almost absent and demand was high; gas prices stayed at EUR 40-44 because Gulf tensions had eased; and EU carbon permits recovered to EUR 80 per tonne. A generator burning gas to make one megawatt-hour of electricity paid about EUR 88 for fuel and EUR 32 for carbon permits, leaving a gross margin of about EUR 74. Three weeks earlier, the same calculation gave a loss of EUR 8-9 per megawatt-hour. The difference is almost entirely the electricity price: it was EUR 70 higher on 30 June than on 8 June.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The EUR 74 spread on 30 June required three conditions to converge simultaneously. First, EUR 195/MWh day-ahead clearing: produced by the lowest wind week of 2026 coinciding with a summer heat surge, as documented in event 5.

Second, EUR 40-44 TTF: the Hormuz de-escalation of 17 June drained the geopolitical risk premium and the pipeline ban binding with no snap-back left no recovery bid. Third, EUA at EUR 80.17/tCO2: the carbon leg recovered after the EUR 79.25 dip on 29 June, maintaining the EUR 32/MWh carbon input that keeps the spread below what a carbon-free calculation would yield.

Remove any one condition and the spread collapses: at spring TTF of EUR 47-52 with the same EUR 195 day-ahead and EUR 80 EUA, the marginal cost rises to EUR 134-144/MWh and the spread falls to EUR 51-61/MWh, below most fixed-O&M recovery thresholds.

At EUR 195 power with EUR 44 gas but EUA at EUR 70, the carbon leg falls to EUR 28/MWh, reducing marginal cost by EUR 4/MWh and boosting the spread to EUR 78, a minor change that confirms gas price, not carbon, is the dominant spread driver in the current EUR 40-44 TTF regime.

Sources:euenergy.live·Trading Economics
Mentions:EUA →Germany →CCGT →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #22 · Germany refills as the autumn cliff nears

euenergy.live· 30 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
German clean spark spread holds negative
Germany's clean spark spread reversed its EUR -8 to -9/MWh three-week run when EUR 195 day-ahead power covered gas and carbon input costs at a 50% CCGT, widening to roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June.
Occurred 8 Jun 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks EUR 80 as gas sags
EUA recovering from EUR 79.25 (29 June) to EUR 80.17 (30 June) after briefly losing the EUR 80 handle set the EUR 32/MWh carbon leg that held the German spark spread below EUR 100 even at EUR 195 day-ahead power.
Occurred 25 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Clean spark spread reaches EUR 74
German gas-fired plants returned to profit as the day-ahead high lifted the spark spread above EUR 70, with carbon near EUR 80 capping the gain.
Led to
Two shocks squeeze the spark, not FR-DE
Contrasts against the EUR 74 spark spread reached on 30 June, showing the same margin pressure recurring under different drivers.
Occurred 9 Jul 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks EUR 81 a tonne
The EUR 81 print extends the EUA run that first broke EUR 80 on 25 June and held EUR 80.17 on 30 June.
Occurred 13 Jul 2026
Read story →
German gas plants back in profit
The clean spark spread reached EUR 74 on 30 June in an earlier inversion-to-recovery cycle; this is the same metric recurring at a later point in the same cycle.
Occurred 30 Jul 2026
Read story →
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