21JUN

Same wind, two prices: solar sets gap

3 min read

17:51UTC

German day-ahead peaked at EUR 187.30/MWh at 05:00 UTC on 31 July with wind at 3.4 GW. At 10:15 UTC on 29 July, wind sat at the same 3.4 GW and the price printed zero.

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ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

Identical wind produced EUR 187 and zero six days apart; midday solar explains the gap.

German day-ahead reached EUR 187.30/MWh at 05:00 UTC on Friday 31 July, with onshore and offshore wind at 3.4 GW ¹. At 10:15 UTC on Wednesday 29 July, wind sat at the same 3.4 GW and the price printed EUR 0.00 to minus EUR 0.06/MWh. Two prints, one wind level, and roughly EUR 187 between them.

Solar output separates the two prints. Germany has installed enough solar capacity that around midday in July it covers most of the load left over once wind, nuclear imports and must-run plant are counted. That leftover is residual load: the slice of demand the market has to price by dispatching something dispatchable, which in Germany means a gas plant. At 10:15 there was almost no residual load to price. At 05:00 there was, and no solar to meet it.

This desk asked last week whether German power would snap back above EUR 110 the next time wind fell toward 3 GW with TTF near EUR 58. It did, by a wide margin. But we wrote the mechanism as wind alone, and that was wrong in a way the 29 July control print makes plain. The snapback is a night-time event, worth roughly a fifth of the daily hours, not a whole-day repricing. The negative quarter-hours France and Germany both posted on 25 July and the EUR 187.30 print of six days later sit on nearly identical wind, and only the solar leg separates them.

The correction matters for anyone reading a wind forecast as a price forecast. Germany cleared EUR 195/MWh on 30 June on the year's lowest wind week , but that episode combined weak wind with a heat surge lifting demand into the afternoon. As solar output falls through September and October, the hours when wind alone determines residual load widen from a pre-dawn block toward whole days, which is when a low-wind forecast starts to mean what this desk previously implied it already meant.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Germany's electricity price can look wildly different at two moments with exactly the same amount of wind power being generated, because what matters just as much is whether the sun is up. During the day, solar panels cover much of the demand that would otherwise need wind or gas, keeping prices low or even negative. At night, with no solar at all, the same wind output leaves a much bigger gap to fill, and prices spike. So it is not wind alone that decides the price; it is wind combined with whether solar is available at that hour.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The root cause is not wind variability alone; it is the interaction between wind and the hour of day relative to solar output. At 3.4 GW of wind and full midday solar on 29 July, residual load, the demand left over after renewables, was low enough to clear near zero. At the same 3.4 GW of wind but zero solar at 05:00 UTC on 31 July, residual load was high enough to clear at EUR 187.30.

This reframes the mechanism this desk previously described as a wind story: the binding constraint on German clearing price is post-solar residual load, and any model that holds wind output constant while ignoring the solar profile of the hour in question will misprice the night-time peak.

What could happen next?

Meaning
German day-ahead price spikes are better explained by post-solar residual load than by wind output alone, which changes what should be modelled when forecasting price shape.
Consequence
Storage, interconnection and demand-response assets that can shift consumption or supply into night-time hours capture more value under this framing than a wind-only model would suggest.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Consensus view: The consensus reading holds that once solar penetration passes a certain share of midday demand, wind stops being the sole explanatory variable for price spikes, because solar covers the same hours that wind-driven residual load would otherwise have exposed; this update's own data supports that directly, showing identical 3.4 GW wind output producing a EUR 187.30/MWh peak at 05:00 UTC (no solar) against a EUR 0.00 to minus EUR 0.06/MWh print at 10:15 UTC (full solar) on 29 July.

Counter-view: The counter-case, drawn from the well-documented "duck curve" pattern seen in other solar-heavy grids, cautions against assuming the German case will resolve the same way: the evening ramp, when solar drops off but demand stays high, remains the harder problem to solve, and Germany's own night-time peak on 31 July suggests the same ramp risk applies once solar output falls to zero.

Key tension: Whether the German price snapback is best understood as a wind story, as this desk previously framed it, or as a night-time residual-load story that will recur every evening solar output falls to zero regardless of wind conditions.

Sources:Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)·Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)

Mentions:Germany →Fraunhofer ISE →France →TTF →

First Reported In

Update #31 · Caverns restart, 21 points short of November

Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)· 31 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Germany and France print sub-zero hours

The first sub-zero quarter-hour prices of 25 July contrast with the EUR 187.30 night-time peak of 31 July on similar wind levels, isolating solar as the swing variable.

Occurred 24 Jul 2026

Read story →

German power hits EUR 195 on dead wind

The 30 June EUR 195 print on the year's lowest-wind week is the prior instance of the high-price-on-low-wind pattern; this event refines it by isolating post-solar residual load, not wind alone, as the driver.

Occurred 30 Jun 2026

Read story →

This Event

Same wind, two prices: solar sets gap

Post-solar residual load, not wind output on its own, is the variable that sets Germany's clearing price.

Led to

Record solar takes the German spark negative

The two-day test of near-identical wind and opposing spark signs applies and confirms the post-solar residual load correction the desk made on 31 July.

Occurred 2 Aug 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Turkiye

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Oman

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Pakistan

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United States

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Iran

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Saudi Arabia

Riyadh published a target forecast, not an attribution, for the campaign it says the Najran strike previewed. That keeps an Article 51 case available while it formalises a trilateral defence architecture with Pakistan and Turkiye.