The Pentagon revised its official wounded count to 365, up from 303 . The Intercept's investigation, based on hospital admissions, medevac records, and unnamed officials, put the figure at 520 or more. The revised number closes the gap slightly but remains roughly 30% below the independent estimate. Neither figure includes casualties from the 3 April F-15E and A-10 incidents. The real total is likely above 540. 1
27JUL
Pentagon revises US wounded count to 365
1 min read
09:24UTC
The official count rose by 62 but remains 30% below The Intercept's independent estimate of 520 or more.
EconomicAssessed
Key takeaway
Official casualty figures remain 30% below independent estimates, excluding 3 April losses.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
The US military's official wounded count rose from 303 to 365. But an independent investigation by The Intercept, using hospital records and Pentagon sources, estimated the real figure is 520 or more. Neither number includes the new casualties from 3 April's aircraft losses. Congress is being asked to approve $200 billion for this war based on data that the Pentagon's own sources say is incomplete by at least 30%.
What could happen next?
- Consequence
Congress votes on war funding using official casualty data that independent sources place 30% too low, undermining the political basis for the $200 billion supplemental.
- Risk
Earlier casualty data showed 75% or more of wounded suffered traumatic brain injuries (ID:1690), a figure still absent from official reporting and likely to become a political liability.
First Reported In
Update #58 · First US aircraft fall over Iran
Washington Post / Financial Times· 4 Apr 2026
Read original →Causes and effects
This Event
Pentagon revises US wounded count to 365
Congress is voting on war funding with casualty data the Pentagon's own sources describe as incomplete.
Different Perspectives
Slovakia
Slovakia says it dropped its hold-out on the 21st sanctions package only after Ursula von der Leyen personally signed written gas-price and supply guarantees. The Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character release on the package names neither Slovakia nor any guarantee, leaving Bratislava's account unconfirmed by the institutional record.
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.
French power exporters
French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.
European gas storage operator
A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.
French industrial power consumers
France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.