22JUN

Türkiye holds at 37% on energy risk

1 min read

13:56UTC

Turkey's central bank left its policy rate unchanged on 10 September and named elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments as an upward risk to inflation.

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EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

Gulf shipping risk is now an input to Turkish monetary policy in all but name.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye held its policy rate at 37% on Thursday 10 September, where it has stood since 23 July, and named elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments as an upward risk to inflation⁠¹.

It named neither Iran nor any sanctions action. Central banks rarely do, because a rate-setting committee that attributes its decision to a named conflict has committed itself to a forecast about that conflict, and it would then have to explain every revision. The euphemism is doing real work all the same: Türkiye imports almost all of its oil and gas, and the energy prices its statement points at are the ones this war is setting.

OFAC designated three Turkish institutions on 4 September, putting the war inside Türkiye's own financial system days before the committee met. Türkiye had been on an easing path, and this decision defers the relief that borrowers and the treasury were pricing in. The transmission runs through the current account: a higher import bill for crude widens the external deficit, weakens the lira, and feeds back into domestic prices through everything Türkiye buys abroad. Cutting into that would compound the pressure the committee has just flagged.

So the war reaches an economy with no combatant role and considerable exposure, through the price of a cargo rather than through any decision made in Ankara.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Turkey's central bank sets the interest rate at which it lends to other banks, which influences borrowing costs and inflation across the economy. On 10 September, it kept that rate unchanged at 37 per cent, the same level it held at its previous decision in July. It said high energy prices linked to regional tensions were a risk to inflation, but also pointed to weaker demand at home pulling inflation the other way. The bank did not mention Iran, the strait of Hormuz or the sanctions against the Turkish financial group Golden Global by name in its September statement, even though all three fall within the period since its last decision.

Sources:Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Mentions:Iran →Ankara →Turkey →Gulf of Oman →OFAC →Oman →Strait of Hormuz →

First Reported In

Update #177 · 23 to 3: Iran goes to the Security Council

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye· 11 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

EIA pushes oil recovery into 2027

The EIA's higher oil-price forecast is one of the elevated energy costs the Turkish central bank cited as an inflation risk in the same week.

Occurred 8 Sept 2026

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This Event

Türkiye holds at 37% on energy risk

A rate decision in Ankara is now partly a function of what happens in the Gulf of Oman, without the bank saying so.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.