18JUN

Thirteen airlines book out to October

2 min read

09:57UTC

Thirteen foreign airlines have pushed their Gulf suspensions out to October after EASA advised European carriers to avoid four countries' airspace. Etihad is still flying from Abu Dhabi.

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Key takeaway

Carriers have booked their absence from the Gulf through October, a forecast rather than a reaction.

Thirteen foreign airlines have extended suspensions of flights to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar through October, following a bulletin from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on 14 July advising European carriers to avoid all four countries' airspace ¹.

Carriers plan crews, slots and aircraft rotations months ahead of departure. A suspension carried as far forward as October is a commercial judgement that this war does not finish in the summer, taken by planners who lose money whichever way they are wrong. Cancel too far out and the aircraft sits idle while rivals sell the route; cancel too late and the airline is paying for crews stranded on a field that shuts without notice.

Kuwait's airport suspended flights outright last week as Gulf carriers cut their services . That was a reaction to the day's events. Booking October is something else.

Etihad Airways has not grounded operations. As of Monday 20 July it was still flying most of its network out of Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, having cancelled only its Kuwait and Bahrain services in mid-July ². A Gulf carrier operating from a Gulf hub reads the same airspace differently from a European one working to an EASA bulletin, and the split is visible in the timetables.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, a regulator that advises airlines on where it is unsafe to fly, told European carriers on 14 July to avoid the airspace over the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Airlines from outside Europe often follow EASA's lead because it affects their insurance and legal position even when they are not legally bound by it. Thirteen foreign airlines have now extended their suspensions of flights to those four countries all the way through October, rather than reviewing the situation week by week. Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, is the exception: it is still flying most of its network, having only cancelled flights to Kuwait and Bahrain specifically.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

EASA bulletins are advisory, not binding on non-EU carriers, but they function as a liability shield: an airline that ignores a published EASA warning and then suffers a loss over Gulf airspace faces a harder insurance and litigation position than one that followed it. That is why 13 carriers extended suspensions well beyond the EU's own jurisdiction.

Etihad's narrower response, cutting only Kuwait and Bahrain while keeping most of its network flying from Zayed International, is the one confirmed exception to that pattern. The research available does not establish why Etihad's risk calculus differs from the other 13 carriers; that gap is worth watching rather than filling in.

What could happen next?

Consequence
An October horizon gives Gulf airports and tourism-dependent carriers a fixed planning window rather than an indefinite one, but it also locks in roughly ten weeks of lost transit and inbound traffic regardless of how the conflict develops before then.

Source Landscape

This story draws on right-leaning sources from Türkiye

Türkiye

LeftRight

Immediate impact: 13 foreign carriers now hold suspensions through October rather than reviewing week by week, which converts a war-risk cost into a budgeted one. Airlines can hedge fuel and reroute crews against a known October date; insurers can price a fixed-term war-risk exclusion instead of an open-ended one.

Structural: the split matters more than the total. Etihad has cancelled only its Kuwait and Bahrain routes and kept flying most of its network from Zayed International, which shows the underlying risk pricing is being done airport by airport, not blanket-applied across the whole Gulf. Carriers are treating EASA's 14 July bulletin as a floor, not a template: some have gone further (full October suspensions), Etihad has gone narrower.

Sources:Anadolu Agency

Mentions:United Arab Emirates (UAE) →Bahrain →Kuwait →Qatar →Etihad Airways →Zayed International Airport →Abu Dhabi →European Union →Emirates →

First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

Anadolu Agency· 22 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Kuwait's airport shuts as Gulf carriers retreat

Kuwait's outright flight suspension on 18 July is the reactive precedent against which the 13 airlines' forward booking to October reads as a forecast.

Occurred 17 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

Thirteen airlines book out to October

Airlines are now planning around this war as far ahead as October, which prices a forecast rather than a reaction.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.