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European Energy Markets
18JUN

Brent at $112 as Houthis join the war

2 min read
09:57UTC

The IEA's largest-ever emergency oil release has not stabilised prices; a Dow executive warned supply chains will take nine months to recover after the strait reopens.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Nine months of supply chain damage is locked in regardless of when the war ends.

Brent crude closed at $112.57 on 28 March, up 4.22% on the day. Pre-war Brent was $67.41; the current price represents a 67% increase in 29 days. The Houthi entry and Iran's firm rejection of negotiations drove the reversal. 1

The IEA's record 400 million barrel emergency release, the largest in the agency's 50-year history, has not stabilised prices. The IEA itself said why: "The most important factor is resumption of regular transit through the strait of Hormuz." 2 European reserves are predominantly industry-held: 74.8 million barrels from industry versus 32.7 million from government, giving European governments less direct control than the headline figure implies.

Dow CEO Jim Fitterling stated the damage is already locked in: even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, petrochemical supply chains will take 250-275 days to unwind. The US-Asia petrochemical pricing gap has surged from under $500 to over $1,200 per metric tonne. 3 US farmers face a 2 million tonne urea shortfall during spring planting, with urea prices up 49% to $720 per tonne. Corn and wheat yields on affected fields could fall 10-20%, with downstream effects on global grain prices by autumn.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices closed at $112.57 per barrel on 28 March, up about 4% on the day. Before the war started, a barrel cost $67.41. The 67% rise in 29 days is one of the fastest sustained oil price increases in modern history. The IEA, a group of oil-consuming countries, released the largest emergency oil reserve in its history: 400 million barrels. It has not reduced prices. The IEA itself said why: reserves cover a temporary supply disruption; they cannot substitute for a closed shipping route. For a British driver, $112 oil means roughly £1.80 per litre at the pump. For farmers, fertiliser is the bigger problem. Urea, the chemical used to grow corn and wheat, has risen 49% in price and the US faces a 2 million tonne shortage this spring planting season. Crop yields could fall 10-20%, and those effects will reach food prices by autumn.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A ceasefire today does not end the economic damage: Dow's 250-275 day supply chain unwind means petrochemical-driven inflation persists into Q1 2027 regardless of conflict resolution.

  • Risk

    The 2 million tonne urea shortfall is not substitutable within a planting season; US crop yields in autumn 2026 are already compromised regardless of war outcome.

Sources:Fortune·IAEA / CBS News·IAEA / CBS News
Mentions:Strait of Hormuz →Iran →Byron Callan →
First Reported In

Update #50 · Houthis join; Iran holds two chokepoints

Fortune· 28 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
War leaves US farms 2m tonnes short
The urea shortfall and Brent surge are direct economic consequences of the Hormuz disruption and Houthi entry compounding energy market pressure.
Occurred 27 Mar 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent at $112 as Houthis join the war
The economic damage is already locked in regardless of when the war ends; the petrochemical and fertiliser shocks will outlast any ceasefire by months.
Led to
Brent at $112 as Houthis enter the war
Brent's 4.22% surge to $112.57 reflects the compounding economic impact of Houthi entry into the conflict adding demand-side uncertainty.
Occurred 28 Mar 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.