Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Data Centres: Boom and Backlash
10JUN

UK Gate 2 grid offers begin issuing

4 min read
10:06UTC

NESO issued the first transmission connection offers under the reformed UK queue in mid-May, with AI Growth Zones drawing priority access, electricity discounts and the right to build their own high-voltage infrastructure.

IndustryDeveloping
Key takeaway

Gate 2 starts issuing; the electricity discount decides whether UK siting can compete with the Nordics again.

NESO (National Energy System Operator) began issuing the first transmission connection offers under the reformed UK queue this week, with Gate 2 Phase 1 opening against an applications book that exceeds Britain's 45 GW national peak . The framework was set on Wednesday 11 March, when energy minister Michael Shanks and AI minister Kanishka Narayan confirmed that AI Growth Zones would receive priority access, 'significant discounts on electricity bills' and the right for developers to build their own high-voltage lines and substations 1. The Gate 2 issuance turns those concessions from a policy paper into a queue place.

OpenAI's quantification of UK industrial electricity at four times US and Nordic rates sets the cost gap Gate 2 alone cannot close, and which has driven greenfield siting decisions to Texas and Finland since 2024. The new electricity discount is the concession that addresses it directly, and the self-build right for high-voltage lines is what makes the discount usable: an operator that can construct its own substation does not need to wait for NESO's distribution allocation to commission the load.

The demand-side application volume that produced the queue grew 460% in six months to June 2025, and the worst waits reached 15 years before the reforms 2. Gate 2 Phase 1 sets the test of whether the financial-deposit reforms cleared the speculative-application backlog NESO had identified as the structural cause. If the offers being issued this month match the pre-Gate 2 forward demand, the reform has worked at the procedural layer. The harder test is whether the AI Growth Zone discount has rebuilt the UK's economic case enough to claw back any of the Cobalt Park-style sites OpenAI has now paused . The earliest signal will come from the second tranche of offers and from which AI Growth Zone operators show up at NESO's connection desk in June.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Britain has a huge backlog of companies waiting to connect to the electricity grid: more than 45 gigawatts of requests from data centres alone, which is more than the entire country uses at peak demand. This queue has caused waits of up to 15 years for a new connection. The government has introduced a reformed system called Gate 2, which started issuing connection offers in May 2026. Companies that have seriously committed to building will now get priority. Data centres in specially designated zones called AI Growth Zones also get a discount on their electricity bills and the right to build their own electricity lines and substations, bypassing some of the queue entirely.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The UK grid queue grew 460% in six months to June 2025, from roughly 10 GW to 50 GW, because the queue had no financial deposit requirement: speculative applicants could hold a position for three to five years at near-zero cost, crowding out committed developers.

The Gate 2 reform introduced financial deposits and active curation of the queue, removing the speculative applications that had inflated the backlog. The 460% growth figure itself is the root cause, not a symptom: it reflects that the pre-Gate 2 queue was not a demand signal but an option-holding exercise.

The AI Growth Zone self-build right for high-voltage lines and substations addresses the deeper structural constraint: NESO's distribution allocation is the bottleneck below the transmission level.

An operator that can construct its own substation and HV lines does not need to wait for NESO's distribution capacity to be available; it bypasses that layer entirely and connects directly to the transmission network. This is the more consequential concession for operators already planning 100 MW-plus campuses with the capital to self-fund substation construction.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    UK AI Growth Zone operators with confirmed Gate 2 positions and the capital to self-build HV infrastructure face a 2-3 year payback advantage over a comparable Finnish build, making the UK competitive for the first time since 2024.

    Medium term · 0.65
  • Risk

    The 460% queue growth figure confirms that most pre-Gate 2 applicants were speculative; if the post-deposit queue is significantly smaller than 50 GW, the reform may reveal that committed UK data-centre demand is far below the headline backlog.

    Short term · 0.7
  • Consequence

    NESO's Gate 2 offers are the first test of whether the UK's queue reform can close the 15-year wait that drove OpenAI to pause Cobalt Park (ID:2785); the second tranche of offers in June-September will be the cleaner signal.

    Short term · 0.8
First Reported In

Update #3 · OpenAI cuts $800bn; rivals double down

GOV.UK / DESNZ· 16 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Data-centre developers and hyperscale operators
Data-centre developers and hyperscale operators
Hill County's rescission on 4 June, seven days after RCM Hill filed a $100 million taking suit, shows the Fifth Amendment threat is faster than any appellate route: the damages clock runs from the day the moratorium passed. Rural counties with no large-load permitting framework face a litigation bill that can exceed their entire annual budget.
Kenya and President Ruto
Kenya and President Ruto
Kenya's suspension of the $1 billion Microsoft-G42 Olkaria project in early May applies raw-capacity logic at national scale: President Ruto stated the full 1 GW build would mean switching off half the country against a 3 GW installed base. A single hyperscale campus can consume a third of a Sub-Saharan grid with no equivalent constraint in Europe.
Denmark and Energinet
Denmark and Energinet
Energinet's 27 May extension of its large-load connection pause, with a 60 GW queue against 7 GW peak demand, demolishes the assumption that surplus renewable generation is a relief valve for compute demand. Denmark has more wind than it can use and still cannot connect data centres, because transmission pace is the binding constraint.
France and EDF
France and EDF
EDF's repurposing of the Bouchain former power-station site for SoftBank's Phase 1 campus gives France a replicable siting instrument, a brownfield nuclear connection bypass, that no other G7 grid operator can match. France's Choose France summit on 30 May secured the boom's largest European bet without a connection-queue fight or community moratorium.
SoftBank Group
SoftBank Group
SoftBank's EUR 75 billion France commitment on 30 May anchors at EDF's Bouchain nuclear baseload, bypassing the UK's four-times-US electricity cost premium (cited by OpenAI as reason to pause Cobalt Park) and Germany's grid-queue delays. EDF's supply relationship is bilateral; SoftBank never enters the French connection queue.
US residential ratepayers and state regulators
US residential ratepayers and state regulators
Portland General Electric's 4 June tariff is the first evidence that PJM's cost-transfer warning to governors on 19 May can run in reverse: Oregon households get a 1.3% bill reduction as data centres absorb their grid costs. The 12 other states carrying active cost-attribution bills now have a filed tariff with actual numbers to cite.