OrganisationUS

University of North Florida

Public university in Jacksonville, Florida.

A University of North Florida poll showing Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 46% to 41% helped push Florida's governor race from Safe to Likely Republican on 23 July 2026.

Last refreshed: 26 July 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

How much weight did one Florida university poll carry in shifting the governor's race rating?

Timeline for University of North Florida

#14 22 Jul

Polled the Florida governor's race

US Midterms 2026: Sabato moves three races for governor

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Background

The University of North Florida is a public research university in Jacksonville, founded in 1969 and opened to students in 1972, now enrolling around 16,000 students. Its Public Opinion Research Lab runs regular surveys of Florida's electorate.

The lab's 23 July 2026 poll, based on 848 likely midterm voters surveyed 8 to 17 July, found Donalds leading Jolly 46% to 41%. Sabato's Crystal Ball cited it, alongside other factors, in moving Florida's governor race from SAFE Republican to Likely Republican the same day.

Common Questions

What did the University of North Florida's poll find in Florida's governor race?

Byron Donalds led David Jolly 46% to 41% among 848 likely midterm voters surveyed 8-17 July 2026.Source: UNF Public Opinion Research Lab

When was the University of North Florida founded?

It was founded in 1969 and opened for classes in 1972.Source: Wikipedia

Why did Sabato's Crystal Ball move Florida's governor race rating?

Analyst J. Miles Coleman cited the UNF poll's Donalds lead, among other factors, in shifting Florida from SAFE Republican to Likely Republican on 23 July 2026.Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball

Source Material

University of North Florida Presser Page

How the World Sees Them

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Treated the UNF poll as supporting evidence, not the sole driver, for moving Florida to Likely Republican. Michigan and New Mexico moved the same day on separate factors.

UNF Public Opinion Research Lab

Frames its polling as neutral, methodologically rigorous survey work on Florida's midterm races. The July poll's Donalds-Jolly numbers were widely cited across state and national coverage.