University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit an all-time low of 47.6 in March 2026, driven by gasoline prices up 21.2% and mounting war anxiety, before the blockade announcement added a further shock. The reading is the lowest in the survey's 74-year history, below the previous record set during the 1979 oil crisis. Because the survey measures conditions as of mid-March, it predates both the Ceasefire and the blockade: April's reading, when published, is expected to fall further .

Published monthly by the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers since 1952, the index surveys approximately 500 US households on their assessment of current personal finances, buying conditions, and five-year economic outlook. The long-run historical average is roughly 86. A reading below 60 has historically coincided with recessions. The 47.6 print is almost 20 points below that threshold. The survey is separate from the Conference Board's consumer confidence index; both track sentiment but weight different factors and rarely diverge by more than a few points over extended periods.

The index matters beyond polling. Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of US GDP; when households cut spending, corporate earnings fall and the economy contracts. The 47.6 reading came alongside a March CPI rise of 0.9% month-on-month, the largest since 1967, compressing real incomes at the same moment confidence collapsed. Political consequences are immediate: Midterm elections in November 2026 will be contested on economic grounds if gasoline and grocery prices remain elevated through summer.