University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
US household confidence survey running since 1952; hit record low 47.6 in March 2026.
Last refreshed: 13 April 2026
How bad was American consumer confidence before the blockade even started?
Timeline for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Mentioned in: US inflation hits 1967 levels before blockade
Iran Conflict 2026- What is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index?
- A monthly survey of about 500 US households published since 1952, measuring confidence in current finances, buying conditions, and the five-year economic outlook. The long-run average is around 86.Source: Michigan survey methodology
- Why did consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in 2026?
- The March 2026 reading of 47.6 was driven by gasoline up 21.2% and war anxiety from the Iran conflict, before the blockade announcement added a further shock.Source: US inflation and sentiment event
- What does a consumer sentiment reading below 60 mean?
- Historically, readings below 60 on the Michigan index have coincided with US recessions. The March 2026 reading of 47.6 is nearly 20 points below that threshold.Source: survey historical context
- How will the Iran war affect the US economy?
- Consumer sentiment hit a 74-year low of 47.6 in March before the blockade. April's reading will reflect the supply shock. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP, so sustained weakness signals recession risk.Source: US inflation and oil events
Background
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit an all-time low of 47.6 in March 2026, driven by gasoline prices up 21.2% and mounting war anxiety, before the blockade announcement added a further shock. The reading is the lowest in the survey's 74-year history, below the previous record set during the 1979 oil crisis. Because the survey measures conditions as of mid-March, it predates both the Ceasefire and the blockade: April's reading, when published, is expected to fall further .
Published monthly by the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers since 1952, the index surveys approximately 500 US households on their assessment of current personal finances, buying conditions, and five-year economic outlook. The long-run historical average is roughly 86. A reading below 60 has historically coincided with recessions. The 47.6 print is almost 20 points below that threshold. The survey is separate from the Conference Board's consumer confidence index; both track sentiment but weight different factors and rarely diverge by more than a few points over extended periods.
The index matters beyond polling. Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of US GDP; when households cut spending, corporate earnings fall and the economy contracts. The 47.6 reading came alongside a March CPI rise of 0.9% month-on-month, the largest since 1967, compressing real incomes at the same moment confidence collapsed. Political consequences are immediate: Midterm elections in November 2026 will be contested on economic grounds if gasoline and grocery prices remain elevated through summer.
