Rystad Energy
Norwegian energy research firm whose war-scenario oil forecasts set global market expectations.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Are Rystad's $110-$135 war scenarios already out of date as the Iran conflict extends?
Latest on Rystad Energy
- What is Rystad Energy?
- Rystad Energy is an independent Norwegian energy research and consultancy firm headquartered in Oslo, founded in 2004. It produces data, market forecasts, and scenario modelling across oil, gas, and renewables, and is widely cited by financial institutions and governments as a benchmark source for upstream cost analysis.Source: Rystad Energy
- What did Rystad Energy forecast for oil prices in the Iran war?
- Rystad modelled $110 per barrel by April in a two-month war scenario and $135 per barrel by June in a four-month war scenario. These projections were published as Brent Crude hit $119 intraday on 19 March 2026 amid the Iran-Israel-US conflict.Source: Rystad Energy
- How do Rystad Energy forecasts compare to Wood Mackenzie and Vanda Insights?
- Where Wood Mackenzie projected $150 soon with $200 possible, and Vanda Insights called $200 already within sight, Rystad published structured scenario ranges tied to conflict duration ($110-$135). Rystad's scenario-based approach is more conservative and anchored to duration assumptions rather than point price targets.Source: Rystad Energy / Wood Mackenzie / Vanda Insights
- Why is Rystad Energy influential in oil price forecasting?
- Rystad's probabilistic, scenario-based methodology differs from single-point forecasts: it ties price projections to specific conflict durations, giving traders and policymakers a structured range rather than an outlier call. This makes its numbers the baseline benchmark against which more aggressive forecasts are evaluated.Source: Rystad Energy
Background
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and consultancy firm founded in 2004 and headquartered in Oslo, Norway. It provides data, analytics, and market forecasts across oil, gas, and renewables to clients including major producers, investors, and governments. The firm employs hundreds of analysts globally and is widely cited by financial institutions as a primary source for upstream cost benchmarking and supply forecasting.
As Brent Crude surged to $119 per barrel intraday on 19 March 2026, Rystad modelled two structured war scenarios: $110 per barrel by April in a two-month war scenario, and $135 per barrel by June in a four-month war scenario, with the Strait of Hormuz closure as the key pressure variable . These scenario-based outputs placed Rystad among a cohort of forecasters publishing named price paths, alongside Wood Mackenzie and Vanda Insights.
The firm's scenario modelling carries particular weight because it anchors probabilistic rather than point forecasts: where rivals named $150 or $200 price targets, Rystad published a structured range tied to conflict duration. That approach positions Rystad's numbers as baseline expectations rather than outlier calls, making them the reference against which more aggressive forecasts are measured by traders and policy analysts.
