National Bureau of Economic Research
Private nonpartisan research body; sole authority that officially dates US recessions.
Last refreshed: 16 April 2026
Will the NBER call a recession if Q2 2026 also contracts under tariff drag?
Timeline for National Bureau of Economic Research
Q1 GDP contracts under tariff drag
US Midterms 2026- How does the NBER decide when a recession has started?
- The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee uses a broad set of monthly indicators including employment, real income, and industrial production. It does not require two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
- Is the US in a recession after Q1 2026 GDP contraction?
- Not yet by NBER standards. The Bureau of Economic Analysis recorded a 0.3 per cent contraction in Q1 2026, but the NBER requires a sustained period of deterioration across multiple indicators. A second consecutive negative quarter would strengthen the case.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / NBER
- What is the difference between a technical recession and an NBER recession?
- A technical recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The NBER uses broader monthly indicators and can declare a recession without two down quarters, or decline to call one that technically qualifies.
- When did the NBER last call a recession?
- The most recent NBER recession was the COVID recession: February to April 2020. Before that, the Great Recession ran December 2007 to June 2009.Source: NBER
Background
The National Bureau of Economic Research is the body whose Business Cycle Dating Committee holds the sole recognised authority to declare the start and end dates of US recessions. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.3 per cent, NBER's two-consecutive-quarters convention became the immediate reference point in political and economic coverage: one negative quarter does not trigger a recession call, but a second would .
Founded in 1920 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the NBER is a private, non-governmental, nonpartisan research organisation. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee, which meets as needed rather than on a fixed schedule, uses a broad set of monthly economic indicators including employment, real income, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales, rather than the popular two-consecutive-quarters rule, to determine recession boundaries. This distinction matters: the committee can call a recession without two down quarters (as in 2001) and can decline to call one that technically meets the popular threshold.
The NBER's recession dating carries weight across topics beyond the US midterms. Its determinations affect official economic policy language, Federal Reserve communications, and academic research globally. In the 2026 midterm context, the committee's pending verdict on whether Q1 2026 GDP contraction constitutes the start of a recession is directly linked to Democratic messaging on tariff damage .