Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)
Last refreshed: 9 June 2026
What does the MMWR Ebola model say happens if isolation stays at 20%?
Timeline for Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)
Mentioned in: Ebola model puts the fork at 20% isolation
Pandemics and Biosecurity- What did the MMWR Ebola model find about the outbreak?
- MMWR's 5 June 2026 model estimated the Bundibugyo Ebola R0 at 2.51 and found that at the current 20% isolation rate, 65% of simulation runs reach 20,000 cases by 22 August 2026.Source: CDC MMWR
- What is the MMWR and why is it important for tracking outbreaks?
- The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) is the CDC's flagship epidemiological journal, published weekly since 1952. It provides near-real-time outbreak surveillance data used by health ministries, WHO, and researchers worldwide. It is freely available online.
- How high does Ebola isolation need to be to stop the outbreak?
- The CDC MMWR model shows that lifting the patient isolation rate from 20% to 70% collapses the worst-case trajectory from 65% of simulations reaching 20,000 cases to a 1% tail by 22 August 2026.Source: CDC MMWR
Background
The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) is the CDC's primary publication for rapid public health surveillance, outbreak data, and policy guidance. Published weekly since 1952, it is freely available online and widely cited by health ministries, WHO, and academic researchers as a near-real-time window into emerging infectious disease data. Notable historical reports include the first HIV/AIDS case clusters in 1981, early H1N1 pandemic data in 2009, and early US COVID-19 case analyses in 2020.
In the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, MMWR published modelling on 5 June 2026 estimating R0 at 2.51, placing spillover around 19 February 2026. The model projects that at the current 20% isolation rate, 65% of simulations reach 20,000 cases by 22 August; raising isolation to 70% collapses that worst case to a 1% tail. This report is the primary quantitative framework driving the outbreak's intervention targets.