Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group is a New York-based political risk consultancy founded by Ian Bremmer in 1998. On 12 May 2026 its analysts told CNBC that Keir Starmer was "unlikely to last the year" as UK Prime Minister, issuing the assessment in the context of the wave of ministerial resignations that week. The call drew significant attention because it translated Labour's internal arithmetic — six ministerial departures in four days, a reported Cabinet transition request — into sovereign risk language used by institutional investors and treasury desks.

Eurasia Group ranks among the world's most cited political risk firms, alongside Oxford Analytica and Control Risks. It publishes an annual "Top Risks" report and provides subscription intelligence on geopolitical developments to financial institutions, multinationals, and governments. Its UK assessments are treated as credible sentiment signals by London-based macro traders because they are designed for an audience pricing political risk into assets rather than reporting on politics domestically.

The "unlikely to last the year" phrasing mirrors language Eurasia Group has used for other heads of government facing credible removal threats. Its CNBC appearance on 12 May, the same day Fahnbulleh and Phillips resigned, effectively marked the moment when Labour's internal crisis crossed from domestic party politics into geopolitical risk pricing territory — with implications for gilt spreads, sterling, and the Autumn fiscal event.

Eurasia Group is a New York-based political risk consultancy founded by Ian Bremmer in 1998. It advises institutional investors, multinationals, and government clients on geopolitical risk, publishing an annual 'Top Risks' report that identifies the ten developments most likely to reshape markets in the coming year. Its assessments translate political dynamics into pricing terms for trading desks, treasury teams, and sovereign wealth funds.

Eurasia Group has been active across two Lowdown topics. In the UK, its analysts told CNBC on 12 May 2026 that Keir Starmer was 'unlikely to last the year' as Prime Minister, in the context of six ministerial resignations in four days. The call translated Labour's internal arithmetic into sovereign risk language for institutional investors. In European oil markets, its energy-sanctions practice provides political-risk context on OFAC licensing decisions and European energy-asset stranding risk, including the probability of General License extensions governing Russian crude assets.

Eurasia Group provides political-risk analysis on the OFAC sanctions framework governing Russian energy assets in Europe, a function that has become commercially significant as OFAC General License deadlines intersect with live European refinery-ownership questions. The firm's energy-sanctions practice assesses the probability of license extensions, the political calculus behind OFAC timing decisions, and the downstream consequences of asset stranding for European downstream operators.

The ISAB Priolo refinery case (320,000 b/d, Sicily, owned by Lukoil) illustrates the class of question Eurasia Group's analysts address. GL 131F, which authorised Lukoil International GmbH to negotiate an ISAB sale, expires 28 June 2026 with no GL 131G issued and no transaction licence enabling title transfer: the largest unresolved Lukoil European asset faces stranding with no lawful transfer mechanism before the Deadline lapses. The political-risk question: whether OFAC will extend the Deadline, issue a successor licence, or allow stranding as a deliberate enforcement signal. European downstream operators and refinery-sector investors use Eurasia Group's read of that probability to assess the medium-run supply implications of a 320,000 b/d facility entering regulatory limbo.