The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator that publishes weekly futures positioning, released a delayed Commitments of Traders (COT) report on 10 July showing NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) managed money net long down to +64,041 contracts in the week to 7 July, a 23% cut from +82,872 a fortnight earlier1. Managed money is the speculative fund category that usually amplifies oil rallies, so a cut into a rising market is the opposite of the crowd chasing price.
Gasoline positioning barely moved. RBOB managed money net long held at +71,249 against +71,095, so the deleveraging sat in crude alone rather than across the petroleum complex. Funds trimmed length into the 5 July OPEC+ August output hike, reading the cartel's added barrels as a supply signal rather than building for a Hormuz squeeze.
The book that ran into the 8 July risk reassertion and the following week's spike was already trimmed. A rally carried on a lighter book has less short-covering fuel behind it if the catalyst fades, and at +64,041 net long WTI positioning is still historically light. The asymmetry that leaves is clear: a second leg higher needs fresh money entering, not trapped shorts scrambling to cover.
