The Record
Is Britain Actually Broke?
What we told you to watch, what each side claimed, and what we got wrong. Every verdict shows its evidence.
Open 23 · Corrections 25
What we told you to watch
Still open · 23
Show the 10 most recentWhether the OBR cuts its 1.4% long-run productivity assumption by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points at the next fiscal event, which would shrink fiscal headroom without any policy changing.
From the 27 Jul briefing
Whether Ofwat accepts the London & Valley Water proposal for Thames Water, or the company enters the Special Administration Regime.
From the 27 Jul briefing
Whether the £4.7bn deferred to Budget 2026 arrives as new money or as a further round of departmental reprioritisation.
From the 27 Jul briefing
What each side claimed
Claims are what a named side said at the time. We record them as said and judge them only against later evidence.
No claims recorded yet.
What we got wrong
- MinorCorrected 7 Oct 2026We said
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What was trueToken converted to the EVREF form
- MinorCorrected 7 Oct 2026We said
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What was trueToken converted to the EVREF form
- SignificantCorrected 3 Sept 2026We said
The Regulator of Social Housing withdrew Thrive Homes' regulatory judgement on 26 August 2026 following its merger into Chime Housing, and has not yet published a judgement for the merged landlord.
What was trueThe Regulator of Social Housing published an interim regulatory judgement for the merged landlord on 26 August 2026, the same day it withdrew Thrive Homes' judgement. It is filed under the legal entity name Watford Community Housing Trust, which trades as Chime Housing, and awards G1 for governance and V2 for financial viability. Our claim that no judgement had been published was wrong: we searched under the trading name, not the legal name. Sources: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-judgement-watford-community-housing-trust and https://www.chimehousing.org.uk/interimregulatoryjudgement
- SignificantCorrected 3 Sept 2026We said
MHCLG agreed Exceptional Financial Support in principle for 36 English councils for 2026-27, worth roughly £1.74bn.
What was trueThe £1.74bn total cannot be sourced. MHCLG publishes no cohort-wide total for Exceptional Financial Support 2026-27 in any document: not on its guidance page, not in a press notice, written ministerial statement or linked publication. The page lists 36 authorities each with an individual in-principle amount, and those 36 amounts sum to £1,510.66m on this desk's own arithmetic. The Wayback snapshot of the same page at first publication on 23/02/2026 lists 35 authorities summing to £1,509.734m; the only change since is the addition of the Isles of Scilly at £0.926m, which reconciles exactly to the current figure. The table has been internally consistent at about £1.51bn throughout, so £1.74bn is not a superseded vintage of it. The separate 2025-26 EFS page lists 22 authorities totalling £1.03bn and does not match either. This desk cannot source £1.74bn from anywhere and withdraws it. Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exceptional-financial-support-for-local-authorities-for-2026-27, page dateModified 2026-08-18T15:12:29+01:00.
- SignificantCorrected 20 Aug 2026We said
NHS England publishes a 'Month N financial position' long-read each month, tied to a dated board or committee paper, with the year-end figure landing roughly nine weeks after the financial year closes. The next figure to watch is the first monthly position for 2026/27, due around August.
What was trueNHS England's national financial-performance series is quarterly, not monthly. The Month N long reads are papers for selected board meetings and do not form a monthly publication series. Quarter 1 2026/27, covering April to June, was published on 13 August 2026. Source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/publication/financial-performance-reports/