The Record
Is Britain Actually Broke?
What we told you to watch, what each side claimed, and what we got wrong. Every verdict shows its evidence.
Open 23 · Corrections 25
What we told you to watch
Still open · 23
Show the 10 most recentOBR productivity path: On 28 October, the OBR's Budget forecast keeps underlying productivity growth at 1.0% a year by the end of its forecast, the figure it set in November 2025.
From the 22 Oct briefing · Deadline: 2026-10-28
DMO remit: On 28 October, the DMO's revised 2026-27 financing remit raises planned gross gilt sales above the total in the remit it replaces.
From the 22 Oct briefing · Deadline: 2026-10-28
Debt ratio, October: By 24 November, the ONS's first estimate for the end of October keeps public sector net debt below 95.0% of GDP.
From the 22 Oct briefing · Deadline: 2026-11-24
Household insolvency rate: By 20 November, the Insolvency Service puts the individual insolvency rate for the 12 months to October above September's 28.0 per 10,000 adults.
From the 22 Oct briefing · Deadline: 2026-11-20
13 October: the IMF's World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, the first World Economic Outlook UK debt figure since April .
From the 7 Oct briefing · Deadline: 13 October
28 October: the OBR forecast and the Budget, and the headroom figure they print against an £8.1bn overshoot, plus whether the 1.4% productivity assumption survives.
From the 7 Oct briefing · Deadline: 28 October
The ONS public finances for September, the half-year reading before the Budget: whether the overshoot widens past £8.1bn.
From the 7 Oct briefing
The Insolvency Service's September figures: whether bankruptcies and IVAs keep rising while the headline rate barely moves.
From the 7 Oct briefing
15/09/2026: whether ONS labour market figures keep real regular pay growth above zero, and whether vacancies fall below 707,000.
From the 3 Sept briefing
17/09/2026: MHCLG's first release of 2025-26 local authority revenue expenditure and financing, the first outturn view of what councils actually spent .
From the 3 Sept briefing
18/09/2026: whether the Insolvency Service's August figures move the individual rate from 27.8 toward this desk's declared 30.0 trigger .
From the 3 Sept briefing
30/09/2026: the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the household saving ratio, in the ONS quarterly national accounts.
From the 3 Sept briefing
28/10/2026: whether the OBR's Economic and fiscal outlook keeps its 1.4% long-run productivity assumption, and whether the £4.7bn deferred to this Budget arrives as new money or as further departmental reprioritisation (ID:5758, ID:5391).
From the 3 Sept briefing
Whether any of the 36 councils on MHCLG's list moves from "in-principle" to a confirmed capitalisation direction.
From the 3 Sept briefing
Whether the individual insolvency rate reaches **30.0 per 10,000 adults**, the trigger this desk declared on 27 July 2026.
From the 20 Aug briefing · Deadline: 27 July 2026
Whether the ONS bulletin of 21 August revises the end-June net debt figure of **£2,989.9bn**, and by how much.
From the 20 Aug briefing · Deadline: 21 August
Whether **Ofwat** publishes a decision on the London & Valley Water proposal before the consortium's stated autumn target.
From the 20 Aug briefing
Whether the OBR's 28 October Economic and fiscal outlook cuts the **1.4% long-run productivity assumption**.
From the 20 Aug briefing · Deadline: 28 October
Whether the **£4.7bn** deferred to Budget 2026 arrives as new money or as further departmental reprioritisation.
From the 20 Aug briefing
Whether the IMF's April 2026 statistical appendix yields a UK general government gross debt figure, closing the only empty cell in the comparison panel.
From the 27 Jul briefing · Deadline: April 2026
What each side claimed
Claims are what a named side said at the time. We record them as said and judge them only against later evidence.
No claims recorded yet.
What we got wrong
- MinorCorrected 7 Oct 2026We said
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What was trueToken converted to the EVREF form
- MinorCorrected 7 Oct 2026We said
Raw back-reference token left in reader prose
What was trueToken converted to the EVREF form
- SignificantCorrected 3 Sept 2026We said
The Regulator of Social Housing withdrew Thrive Homes' regulatory judgement on 26 August 2026 following its merger into Chime Housing, and has not yet published a judgement for the merged landlord.
What was trueThe Regulator of Social Housing published an interim regulatory judgement for the merged landlord on 26 August 2026, the same day it withdrew Thrive Homes' judgement. It is filed under the legal entity name Watford Community Housing Trust, which trades as Chime Housing, and awards G1 for governance and V2 for financial viability. Our claim that no judgement had been published was wrong: we searched under the trading name, not the legal name. Sources: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-judgement-watford-community-housing-trust and https://www.chimehousing.org.uk/interimregulatoryjudgement
- SignificantCorrected 3 Sept 2026We said
MHCLG agreed Exceptional Financial Support in principle for 36 English councils for 2026-27, worth roughly £1.74bn.
What was trueThe £1.74bn total cannot be sourced. MHCLG publishes no cohort-wide total for Exceptional Financial Support 2026-27 in any document: not on its guidance page, not in a press notice, written ministerial statement or linked publication. The page lists 36 authorities each with an individual in-principle amount, and those 36 amounts sum to £1,510.66m on this desk's own arithmetic. The Wayback snapshot of the same page at first publication on 23/02/2026 lists 35 authorities summing to £1,509.734m; the only change since is the addition of the Isles of Scilly at £0.926m, which reconciles exactly to the current figure. The table has been internally consistent at about £1.51bn throughout, so £1.74bn is not a superseded vintage of it. The separate 2025-26 EFS page lists 22 authorities totalling £1.03bn and does not match either. This desk cannot source £1.74bn from anywhere and withdraws it. Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exceptional-financial-support-for-local-authorities-for-2026-27, page dateModified 2026-08-18T15:12:29+01:00.
- SignificantCorrected 20 Aug 2026We said
NHS England publishes a 'Month N financial position' long-read each month, tied to a dated board or committee paper, with the year-end figure landing roughly nine weeks after the financial year closes. The next figure to watch is the first monthly position for 2026/27, due around August.
What was trueNHS England's national financial-performance series is quarterly, not monthly. The Month N long reads are papers for selected board meetings and do not form a monthly publication series. Quarter 1 2026/27, covering April to June, was published on 13 August 2026. Source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/publication/financial-performance-reports/