Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Same wind, two prices: solar sets gap

3 min read
09:24UTC

German day-ahead peaked at EUR 187.30/MWh at 05:00 UTC on 31 July with wind at 3.4 GW. At 10:15 UTC on 29 July, wind sat at the same 3.4 GW and the price printed zero.

← Back to The pause ends, and the map moves westJump to analysis ↓
ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Identical wind produced EUR 187 and zero six days apart; midday solar explains the gap.

German day-ahead reached EUR 187.30/MWh at 05:00 UTC on Friday 31 July, with onshore and offshore wind at 3.4 GW 1. At 10:15 UTC on Wednesday 29 July, wind sat at the same 3.4 GW and the price printed EUR 0.00 to minus EUR 0.06/MWh. Two prints, one wind level, and roughly EUR 187 between them.

Solar output separates the two prints. Germany has installed enough solar capacity that around midday in July it covers most of the load left over once wind, nuclear imports and must-run plant are counted. That leftover is residual load: the slice of demand the market has to price by dispatching something dispatchable, which in Germany means a gas plant. At 10:15 there was almost no residual load to price. At 05:00 there was, and no solar to meet it.

This desk asked last week whether German power would snap back above EUR 110 the next time wind fell toward 3 GW with TTF near EUR 58. It did, by a wide margin. But we wrote the mechanism as wind alone, and that was wrong in a way the 29 July control print makes plain. The snapback is a night-time event, worth roughly a fifth of the daily hours, not a whole-day repricing. The negative quarter-hours France and Germany both posted on 25 July and the EUR 187.30 print of six days later sit on nearly identical wind, and only the solar leg separates them.

The correction matters for anyone reading a wind forecast as a price forecast. Germany cleared EUR 195/MWh on 30 June on the year's lowest wind week , but that episode combined weak wind with a heat surge lifting demand into the afternoon. As solar output falls through September and October, the hours when wind alone determines residual load widen from a pre-dawn block toward whole days, which is when a low-wind forecast starts to mean what this desk previously implied it already meant.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Germany's electricity price can look wildly different at two moments with exactly the same amount of wind power being generated, because what matters just as much is whether the sun is up. During the day, solar panels cover much of the demand that would otherwise need wind or gas, keeping prices low or even negative. At night, with no solar at all, the same wind output leaves a much bigger gap to fill, and prices spike. So it is not wind alone that decides the price; it is wind combined with whether solar is available at that hour.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The root cause is not wind variability alone; it is the interaction between wind and the hour of day relative to solar output. At 3.4 GW of wind and full midday solar on 29 July, residual load, the demand left over after renewables, was low enough to clear near zero. At the same 3.4 GW of wind but zero solar at 05:00 UTC on 31 July, residual load was high enough to clear at EUR 187.30.

This reframes the mechanism this desk previously described as a wind story: the binding constraint on German clearing price is post-solar residual load, and any model that holds wind output constant while ignoring the solar profile of the hour in question will misprice the night-time peak.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    German day-ahead price spikes are better explained by post-solar residual load than by wind output alone, which changes what should be modelled when forecasting price shape.

  • Consequence

    Storage, interconnection and demand-response assets that can shift consumption or supply into night-time hours capture more value under this framing than a wind-only model would suggest.

Sources:Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)·Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)
Mentions:Germany →Fraunhofer ISE →France →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #31 · Caverns restart, 21 points short of November

Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (redistributing Bundesnetzagentur SMARD under CC BY 4.0)· 31 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Germany and France print sub-zero hours
The first sub-zero quarter-hour prices of 25 July contrast with the EUR 187.30 night-time peak of 31 July on similar wind levels, isolating solar as the swing variable.
Occurred 24 Jul 2026
Read story →
German power hits EUR 195 on dead wind
The 30 June EUR 195 print on the year's lowest-wind week is the prior instance of the high-price-on-low-wind pattern; this event refines it by isolating post-solar residual load, not wind alone, as the driver.
Occurred 30 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Same wind, two prices: solar sets gap
Post-solar residual load, not wind output on its own, is the variable that sets Germany's clearing price.
Led to
Record solar takes the German spark negative
The two-day test of near-identical wind and opposing spark signs applies and confirms the post-solar residual load correction the desk made on 31 July.
Occurred 2 Aug 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
United States
United States
OFAC gazetted two wind-down licences expiring four days apart and adopted a presumption of denial for new Iran sanctions requests, while the State Department separately sanctioned Kataib Hezbollah and Hezbollah financial networks. Washington is closing legal channels on a published calendar rather than all at once.
United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates
Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met Iran's president in New Delhi, the first known face-to-face since the war began, weeks after cutting all Emirati trade and financial dealings with Iran. Abu Dhabi is running economic pressure and diplomatic contact at the same time.
Houthis
Houthis
Houthi forces completed the capture of Yemen's Red Sea coast and Mayun island this week, an offensive a Houthi official confirmed alongside Yemeni government officers. The gain locks in the Bab al-Mandeb closure to Saudi crude declared as an embargo on 23 July.
Iran
Iran
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei credited Iranian diplomacy backed by military strength for pushing neighbours to negotiate, citing the Oman safe-passage talks, while addressing none of the pipeline strike, the Iraqi dismissals or Saudi restraint directly.
Iraq
Iraq
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi sacked two Maysan officials, closed and reopened three Iran border crossings inside three days, and approved a joint inquiry with Tehran into the launch site on his own territory. He is managing a militia network he does not fully control rather than confronting it.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh's Foreign Ministry confirmed the Petroline strike, named no attacker, and said it would hold off retaliating at Iraq's request while reserving the right to act on its own sovereignty. It expects Baghdad's inquiry, not a Saudi strike, to be the next move.