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Cuba Dispatch
8SEP

Cuba's dollar rises as the euro falls

1 min read
13:24UTC

Cuba's informal dollar rose from 673 to 683 pesos over the 30 days to 6 September while the euro fell from 783 to 775, a divergence El Toque's index shows but does not explain.

PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

The informal dollar and euro moved opposite ways, pointing at dollar scarcity rather than peso weakness.

Cuba's informal exchange rate moved in two directions at once over the 30 days to 6 September. The dollar rose from 673 to 683 pesos while the euro fell from 783 to 775 1. El Toque, whose index is the benchmark rate for the island's real economy, publishes the levels but has not drawn the comparison, and CiberCuba, a general Cuban news site written largely for the diaspora, cautions that a 30-day reading may cross a methodology change.

A general peso collapse would push both currencies the same way, because the peso would be losing ground against everything at once. Two hard currencies parting company points at the demand side instead, which means dollars are becoming scarcer or harder to source than euros rather than the peso weakening across the board.

If the reading holds, it is what a campaign against banks, fuel wholesalers and nickel traders would be expected to produce, because those are the channels through which dollars reach the island. Cuba legalised dollar accounts without forced conversion into pesos in June , so which currency a household is paid in is now a financial position rather than a detail. A family remitted from Miami lost ground this month while a family remitted from Madrid gained it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

El Toque runs the most widely cited unofficial exchange-rate index for Cuba, since the government does not let the peso trade freely. Over the 30 days to 6 September, the index showed the informal dollar rate rising from 673 to 683 pesos while the euro fell from 783 to 775. CiberCuba, a Cuban-diaspora news outlet, cautioned that the divergence between the two currencies might reflect a change in how El Toque calculates its index rather than a real shift in how much dollars or euros are actually worth on the street.

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