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Artemis II Moon Mission
7APR

A new sunspot rises as Orion turns home

2 min read
15:00UTC

NOAA forecasters logged a fresh active region on the central solar disk overnight, the emerging space weather risk for the return leg.

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Key takeaway

Region 4412 is the new central-disk watch item as Orion begins its return leg.

NOAA SWPC's 0030 UTC discussion on 7 April identified a new active region, Region 4412, at N10W04 on the central solar disk with substantial flux emergence.1 It is the first such central-disk region to emerge during the return phase. No news outlet has yet reported the handover.

Two days earlier Region 4409 had produced only minor flares at flyby , and it has now rotated to W43, declining as a return-leg threat. By splashdown it will sit near the western limb at approximately W82, geometrically unable to direct a significant event at Earth. NOAA SWPC still assigns Region 4409 a 40% M-class flare probability for the next forecast day (M-class is a medium-strength solar flare on NASA's A/B/C/M/X scale, where X is strongest).2

The handover matters because the broader G3 storm window has closed and the crew has now started its return. A central-disk flare from Region 4412 would couple directly to the unpublished cumulative dose story; a limb event from 4409 would not.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Sun constantly produces dark patches called sunspots, which are areas of intense magnetic activity. Some sunspots fire off bursts of radiation called solar flares. When a sunspot is facing Earth, its flares can reach a spacecraft in transit. Yesterday's risk came from a sunspot called Region 4409, which went quiet just in time. Today, forecasters identified a new sunspot, Region 4412, on the central part of the Sun facing Earth. It will be watched as Orion makes its return trip home over the next three days.

Deep Analysis
Escalation

Region 4412 presents a genuine but manageable escalation in space weather risk for the return leg. The key metric is central-disk rotational position at splashdown: if the region remains active and fires an M-class or higher event within 72 hours, the proton propagation timing relative to Orion's re-entry window (8:07 PM EDT, 10 April) will determine dose impact.

Current trajectory: Region 4409 declining to W82 by 10 April (geometrically benign). Region 4412 emerging at N10W04, rotating approximately 13 degrees westward per day, reaching roughly N10W35 by splashdown — still Earth-facing but moving away. Net assessment: moderate and declining risk. The unpublished cumulative dose baseline (ID:2066) means any additional exposure from Region 4412 cannot be placed in context publicly.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    An M-class or higher flare from Region 4412 in the next 72 hours would add measurable radiation dose to an already-unpublished cumulative exposure total, making independent post-mission dose assessment harder.

  • Opportunity

    Orion's re-entry on 10 April coincides with Region 4412 rotating away from optimal Earth-facing position; if the region remains below X-class through 10 April, the return risk resolves cleanly.

Sources:NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center·NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Mentions:Space Weather Prediction Center →Region 4409 →Orion →NOAA →Apollo 16 →NASA →Prima →European Space Agency →
First Reported In

Update #6 · Rest Day Between Records and Reckoning

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center· 7 Apr 2026
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