National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Britain's longest-established Independent economic and social research institute, founded 1938.
NIESR's October 2026 Term Premium Tracker put the 10-year gilt yield at 5.43%, up 59 basis points in the third quarter, and traced about two-thirds of that rise to expected Bank Rate rather than fiscal fear.
Last refreshed: 7 October 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Is Britain's gilt sell-off a fear premium or just expected Bank Rate?
Timeline for National Institute of Economic and Social Research
30-year gilt passes 6%, last seen 1998
Is Britain Actually Broke?Background
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is Britain's longest-established Independent economic research institute. A group of social and economic reformers that included John Maynard Keynes and William Beveridge founded it in 1938.
NIESR operates as a charity and stands apart from party politics. It says it receives no core funding from government or other sources, so its standing rests on the independence of its analysis. Its output runs from macroeconomic forecasts to trackers that decompose market moves, and the full detail of some of that work is reserved for members.
NIESR earns its place in the debate over British public finances through diagnosis. Its Term Premium Tracker separates the part of gilt yields driven by expected interest rates from the extra premium investors charge for holding UK debt, which is the line between a rate story and a solvency story. In October 2026 that analysis placed most of the year's yield rise on the rate side while accepting a fiscal element in the remainder.
Its tracker splits the gilt sell-off
NIESR's Term Premium Tracker, published in October 2026, put the 10-year gilt yield at 5.43%, up 59 basis points over the third quarter. It assigns about two-thirds of that rise to higher expected Bank Rate. The other third comes from a larger UK term premium, the extra return investors demand for holding long-dated debt, which rose 20 basis points to 0.83 percentage points.
The split is NIESR's answer to the claim that Britain faces a fiscal buyers' strike, but it concedes ground. The institute accepts that UK fiscal worries sit inside that term premium and that the Chancellor's headroom has eroded. It also sets Britain against the Eurozone, putting French and Italian term premia at about three times those of the UK and the US. NIESR reserves the detail behind the summary for its members.