Medián
Hungarian independent pollster; final pre-election poll showed Tisza leading Fidesz 58% to 33%, a 25-point gap.
Last refreshed: 11 April 2026
At 25 points ahead in the final Median poll, is a Tisza victory certain enough to price in the EU loan unlock?
Latest on Medián
- What are the latest polls for the Hungary election in 2026?
- Final pre-election polls showed Tisza leading Fidesz by 25 points in Median (58% to 33%) and by 12.8 points in AtlasIntel (52.1% to 39.3%). The election was held on 12 April 2026.Source: Median/AtlasIntel
- Is Median a reliable pollster in Hungary?
- Median, founded in 1989, is Hungary's oldest independent polling firm and one of the primary sources for Hungarian public opinion data. It consistently showed a wider Tisza-Fidesz gap than AtlasIntel in the lead-up to the April 2026 election.
Background
Medián is Hungary's oldest independent polling organisation, founded in 1989, and one of the two pollsters cited in the final published surveys before the 12 April 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. Its final poll showed Péter Magyar's Tisza party at 58% versus Viktor Orbán's Fidesz at 33%, a 25-point gap.
Medián occupies a position in Hungarian polling as an independent firm that has historically shown a wider Tisza-Fidesz gap than its competitor AtlasIntel, which placed the margin at 12.8 points in its final survey. The two polls using different methodologies and sample frames produced a range of outcomes from a decisive Tisza win (Medián) to a narrower but still substantial Tisza advantage (AtlasIntel). Hungarian electoral law prohibits publishing new polls after a blackout period.
The 2026 election result has direct implications for Ukraine: a Tisza government would shift Hungary's EU veto position on the blocked EUR 90 billion loan package, though Tisza MEPs themselves voted against the package in the European Parliament. The Medián polling data is cited in the briefing as evidence that Hungary's political landscape was, at the time of publication, expected to change substantially.