European futures
Overnight futures on European equity indices, signalling expected market direction before exchanges open.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026
Are European futures pricing in a Strait of Hormuz closure or a short war?
Latest on European futures
- What are European futures?
- European futures are derivatives contracts that track major European stock indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and FTSE 100. They trade outside regular market hours and serve as a pre-market indicator of where European equities are expected to open, similar to how Dow futures work for US markets.
- How did European futures react to the Iran conflict?
- European futures fell 2.3% on the day global markets absorbed the outbreak of the Iran conflict, alongside an 11% rise in Brent Crude and a 300-point drop in Dow futures. The move reflected immediate fears of an energy supply shock.Source: Lowdown
- What is the difference between European futures and Dow futures?
- European futures track indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and FTSE 100, while Dow futures track the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Both serve as pre-market sentiment gauges, but European futures are more sensitive to energy price shocks given Europe's higher industrial energy dependency.
- Why did European futures drop during the Iran conflict?
- European futures fell 2.3% as markets priced in the risk of a Strait of Hormuz disruption. With approximately 20% of the world's traded oil transiting through Hormuz, a prolonged closure would hit European energy-intensive industry hardest, driving equity sentiment sharply lower.Source: Lowdown
- Do European futures predict stock market direction?
- European futures are a sentiment gauge, not a precise forecast. They indicate where traders expect indices to open but can diverge significantly from actual open prices when news breaks between the futures settlement and the market open.
Background
European futures are derivatives contracts tracking major European stock indices, principally the Euro Stoxx 50, the DAX, and the FTSE 100. They trade around the clock on exchanges including Eurex and ICE, allowing investors to take positions outside regular European market hours. Like Dow futures in the US, they function as a pre-market sentiment gauge, showing where traders expect equities to open.
The Iran conflict triggered the first significant move in weeks: European futures fell 2.3% on the day global markets absorbed the news of the outbreak, with Brent Crude opening 11% higher simultaneously. As JP Morgan raised its recession probability to 35% and oil forecasts climbed to $110-130 per barrel, futures reflected mounting fears of a prolonged supply shock.
The 2.3% drop was modest relative to the scale of the conflict, reflecting a market bet on a short, contained war. Should the Strait of Hormuz close for weeks rather than days, European futures would bear the transmission: energy-intensive European industry is exposed to prolonged oil shocks far more directly than US markets, making these contracts a live referendum on Hormuz risk.