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Dirk Willer

Citi's global head of macro strategy; warned AI growth can coexist with unemployment and deflation.

Last refreshed: 30 March 2026

Key Question

Can the economy grow while AI puts people out of work?

Timeline for Dirk Willer

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Common Questions
Who is Dirk Willer?
Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citi Research. His team warned that AI-driven growth can coexist with rising unemployment and deflation.Source: background
What did Citi say about AI and jobs?
Citi Research warned that "strong growth can coexist with unemployment and deflation" as AI creates winner-take-most dynamics with concentrated gains and broad displacement.Source: background
Is the AI bubble over?
Willer told CNBC in February 2026 that "the AI bubble is not over yet," while simultaneously warning the labour consequences are under-priced.Source: background

Background

Dirk Willer is Global Head of Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Emerging Market Strategy at Citi Research. His team's note warning that "strong growth can coexist with unemployment and deflation" became a key reference point in the AI labour displacement debate.

Willer's argument is that AI creates a winner-take-most dynamic: a small number of companies and workers capture the productivity gains while broader labour markets face displacement. The timing, his team acknowledged, remains "very unclear," but current labour data already show early divergence signals.

In February 2026 Willer told CNBC that "the AI bubble is not over yet," positioning Citi as holding both views simultaneously: the investment cycle has room to run, but the labour consequences are real and under-priced by markets.