TTF (Title Transfer Facility, the Dutch wholesale gas benchmark) settled at €50.17/MWh on Monday 18 May, the first close above €50 since early April, an 11% weekly gain from the €47.23 close on Tuesday 12 May. ACER, the EU energy regulator, published its Annual LNG Report 2025 on Wednesday 13 May confirming US suppliers now provide 58% of EU LNG imports, projected by IEEFA to reach 65% in 2026 as Russian short-term contracts wash out under the 25 April ban.
The Dutch front-month is finally pricing two pricing dynamics at once: the storage arithmetic the beat has tracked since the season opened, and the structural concentration story ACER's report quantified this week. Russian pipeline gas peaked at roughly two-fifths of total EU gas in 2021; the US 58% LNG share, multiplied through LNG's share of total EU supply, now equates to roughly a fifth of EU gas demand routing through one country's terminals. Commission Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera warned the same week that Europe should 'avoid replacing one energy dependency with another'; her institution has spent approximately €117 billion on US LNG since 2022.
