Amin Nasser, chief executive of Aramco, warned on 12 May 2026 that the global oil market will not normalise until 2027 if the Hormuz blockade runs past mid-June1. The forecast extends his 11 May warning about a 100 million barrel per week supply loss from a fortnightly figure to a multi-year horizon. Aramco is the Saudi state oil company and the largest single producer in the world; Nasser is not predicting a kinetic event but forecasting that the absence of a written ceasefire architecture will leave the war-risk insurance freeze in place through 2026.
The mechanism is the price discovery process that would normalise Brent does not exist while the European mission's rules of engagement remain unpublished. Even a signed ceasefire next month would not unwind the premium: although the kinetic risk would lift, war-risk insurance underwriting and shipping repositioning would still take quarters to clear. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley corroborated the same structural read of the P&I (Protection and Indemnity) insurance freeze. The 2027 figure is when the structural premium might lift, not when it might spike further.
Brent's $107.05 close on 13 May sits roughly $40 above the pre-war baseline at around $67. At global consumption of roughly 100 million barrels per day, that is $4 billion per day in transferred wealth from importers to producers, sustained for 75 days already. The 2027 horizon implies a cumulative wealth transfer measured in trillions if it holds. For UK and European households, that is the structural diesel cost increase locked in until at least mid-2027 if the forecast proves accurate.
