Amin Nasser, chief executive of Aramco, warned on 12 May 2026 that the global oil market will not normalise until 2027 if the Hormuz blockade runs past mid-June 1. The forecast extends his 11 May warning about a 100 million barrel per week supply loss from a fortnightly figure to a multi-year horizon. Aramco is the Saudi state oil company and the largest single producer in the world; Nasser is not predicting a kinetic event but forecasting that the absence of a written Ceasefire architecture will leave the war-risk insurance freeze in place through 2026.
The mechanism is the price discovery process that would normalise Brent does not exist while the European mission's rules of engagement remain unpublished . Even a signed Ceasefire next month would not unwind the premium: although the kinetic risk would lift, war-risk insurance underwriting and shipping repositioning would still take quarters to clear. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley corroborated the same structural read of the P&I (Protection and Indemnity) insurance freeze. The 2027 figure is when the structural premium might lift, not when it might spike further.
Brent's $107.05 close on 13 May sits roughly $40 above the pre-war baseline at around $67. At global consumption of roughly 100 million barrels per day, that is $4 billion per day in transferred wealth from importers to producers, sustained for 75 days already. The 2027 horizon implies a cumulative wealth transfer measured in trillions if it holds. For UK and European households, that is the structural diesel cost increase locked in until at least mid-2027 if the forecast proves accurate.
