The final pre-conflict QatarEnergy LNG tanker docked at a UK terminal on 10 April 2026, closing the pre-conflict supply bridge1. 150 laden oil tankers remain trapped in the Gulf; 277 LNG vessels have reached Europe since the war began, and a 90-day minimum delay is projected before normal Gulf flows resume2.
QatarEnergy is the Qatari national energy company operating Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG export terminal and the origin of roughly 20% of global LNG supply in a normal year. From 11 April onward, every LNG molecule reaching a European terminal is Atlantic-sourced or from non-Hormuz origins. That is not a partial disruption to the European import picture; it is a regime change in cargo provenance.
The 90-day window anchors the operational calendar. It runs through the peak of the refill season, leaving one of Europe's flexible supply offsets absent when injection matters most. Any slippage extends the gap. EU LNG terminal inventory was already drawing 163kt in three days to 5,766kt on 13 April with no evident new cargo arrivals; terminal buffer now functions as the marginal supplier rather than incoming cargo.
The Atlantic-only regime has its own constraints. Flexible Atlantic cargoes route by JKM-TTF spread rather than by policy preference, and at prevailing TTF levels the spread does not favour a European bias. The marginal supply response to a European price signal is slower under an Atlantic-only regime. QatarEnergy declared force majeure after Ras Laffan was struck in the March disruption; subsequent resumption timing depends on the ceasefire window on 21-22 April and on infrastructure assessment that cannot begin until the security picture stabilises. For procurement desks, the 90-day clock is now the primary supply input and the reference parameter against which every other element of the 22-29 April stack has to be judged.
